Enhanced Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific During Warm Periods Over the Last Two Millennia

Abstract

It is assumed that the potential intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) will increase with rising global temperature. The western North Pacific is one of the three principal TC centers, but TC records from the region are scarce and sometimes controversial. Here we present grain-size distributions and element contents of sediment cores from the East China Sea, in the western North Pacific. We interpret changes in the mean grain size of the coarse fraction as a proxy for TC intensity, and we infer a linkage of TC intensity to temperature changes over the last two millennia. Supported by model simulations, our results show that TC intensity increased (decreased) during relatively warm (cool) periods, confirming the control of temperature on TC intensity on a multicentennial scale. Our results suggest that long-term TC intensity in the western North Pacific may increase with continued global warming. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.