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Article: Improving the monitoring of suicide incidence by estimating the probability of news reporting

TitleImproving the monitoring of suicide incidence by estimating the probability of news reporting
Authors
Keywordselastic net regression
Hong Kong
newspaper reporting
reporting delay
suicide monitoring
Issue Date2019
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0277-6715/
Citation
Statistics in Medicine, 2019, v. 38 n. 26, p. 5103-5112 How to Cite?
AbstractA timely estimate of suicide incidence is important for surveillance and monitoring but always difficult if not possible. The delay in reporting suicide cases between the time of occurrence of the deaths and them being registered is unavoidable. There is at least one year if not more of the delay time in the latest WHO website reporting the suicide statistics of most countries. Based on the daily newspaper reporting on suicide incidence, this study proposes a method to estimate the unknown incidence in a timely manner. It is shown that demographic characteristics such as age, suicide methods, and the districts of the deceased were significantly associated with the probability of the newspapers reporting the suicides. By incorporating this information on the daily suicide news reports into estimating the probability of the newspapers reporting the suicides, the daily number of suicide cases can be estimated. The proposed method is applied to estimate the number of suicides in Hong Kong where there is the Coroner's Court to investigate into suicide deaths, but it takes at least six months to deliver a verdict. The present method can generate timely and accurate estimations on the daily count of suicide deaths with only a one day lag. In a threefold nested cross‐validation, the proposed approach has achieved an average RMSE of 1.38, MAE of 1.10, and R2 of 0.24. It can also serve as a surveillance system in providing estimations of temporal clusters of suicides with certain characteristics timelessly and accurately.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/277266
ISSN
2017 Impact Factor: 1.932
2015 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.811

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorZeng, XY-
dc.contributor.authorChau, PH-
dc.contributor.authorYip, PSF-
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-20T08:47:47Z-
dc.date.available2019-09-20T08:47:47Z-
dc.date.issued2019-
dc.identifier.citationStatistics in Medicine, 2019, v. 38 n. 26, p. 5103-5112-
dc.identifier.issn0277-6715-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/277266-
dc.description.abstractA timely estimate of suicide incidence is important for surveillance and monitoring but always difficult if not possible. The delay in reporting suicide cases between the time of occurrence of the deaths and them being registered is unavoidable. There is at least one year if not more of the delay time in the latest WHO website reporting the suicide statistics of most countries. Based on the daily newspaper reporting on suicide incidence, this study proposes a method to estimate the unknown incidence in a timely manner. It is shown that demographic characteristics such as age, suicide methods, and the districts of the deceased were significantly associated with the probability of the newspapers reporting the suicides. By incorporating this information on the daily suicide news reports into estimating the probability of the newspapers reporting the suicides, the daily number of suicide cases can be estimated. The proposed method is applied to estimate the number of suicides in Hong Kong where there is the Coroner's Court to investigate into suicide deaths, but it takes at least six months to deliver a verdict. The present method can generate timely and accurate estimations on the daily count of suicide deaths with only a one day lag. In a threefold nested cross‐validation, the proposed approach has achieved an average RMSE of 1.38, MAE of 1.10, and R2 of 0.24. It can also serve as a surveillance system in providing estimations of temporal clusters of suicides with certain characteristics timelessly and accurately.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0277-6715/-
dc.relation.ispartofStatistics in Medicine-
dc.rightsPreprint This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: [FULL CITE], which has been published in final form at [Link to final article using the DOI]. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. Postprint This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: [FULL CITE], which has been published in final form at [Link to final article using the DOI]. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.-
dc.subjectelastic net regression-
dc.subjectHong Kong-
dc.subjectnewspaper reporting-
dc.subjectreporting delay-
dc.subjectsuicide monitoring-
dc.titleImproving the monitoring of suicide incidence by estimating the probability of news reporting-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailChau, PH: phpchau@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.emailYip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityChau, PH=rp00574-
dc.identifier.authorityYip, PSF=rp00596-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/sim.8353-
dc.identifier.pmid31460676-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85071309045-
dc.identifier.hkuros305586-
dc.identifier.volume38-
dc.identifier.issue26-
dc.identifier.spage5103-
dc.identifier.epage5112-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-

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