Housing challenges in Hong Kong’s dualistic housing system: Implications for Chinese cities

Abstract

Hong Kong has a dualistic housing system, composed of a public and a private sector accommodating 46% and 54% of the total population in 2016, respectively (Census and Statistics Department, 2016). The challenges confronting the public housing sector, which is 67% rental and 33% owner-occupied, are to meet the rapidly growing needs and demands from lower-income families, engendered by the skyrocketing private housing prices since 2010, and to lift income eligibility following the promulgation of the minimum wage policy. The acute housing affordability problems of families ineligible for subsidized housing, epitomized by a price-to-income ratio of 17, pose an unprecedented challenge to the government. Convinced that the suspension of new land formation in the early 2000s, and the reduced new land supply from then until 2010, were the major causes of the land and housing supply shortage today, the current government has tried on all fronts to increase land supply in the short, medium, and long terms. But is land shortage the only major cause of the enormous price hikes? In an economy where land is state owned and land-use zoning is statutory, 1 why is the land shortage for housing development so serious? Apart from the short supply of land and housing, are other housing challenges facing Hong Kong today? Is a housing demand projection model driven by demographic trends, as adopted in the 2014 Long-term Housing Strategy, sufficient to prevent future market shocks? Given the similarity in land ownership and the statutory status of land-use zoning, what are the implications of Hong Kong’s housing challenges for mainland Chinese cities?