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Article: Prognostic Factors for Transplant-Free Survival and Validation of Prognostic Models in Chinese Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid
Title | Prognostic Factors for Transplant-Free Survival and Validation of Prognostic Models in Chinese Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid |
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Authors | |
Issue Date | 2017 |
Publisher | Nature Publishing Group: Open Access Journals - Option A. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.nature.com/ctg/index.html |
Citation | Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology, 2017, v. 8 n. 6, article no. e100, p. 1-10 How to Cite? |
Abstract | OBJECTIVES: We aimed to validate the prognostic models for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in Chinese patients receiving ursodeoxycholic acid (UCDA), and to compare their performances in predicting the long-term survival. METHODS: Chinese patients with PBC from a tertiary center were identified via electronic search of hospital medical registry. Risk factors associated with adverse events (liver transplantation or death from liver-related causes including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver decompensation) were determined. Transplant-free survival was defined as survival free of liver-related death or transplantation. RESULTS: Of the 144 patients, 41 (28.5%) had baseline cirrhosis. The median age at diagnosis was 57.8 years. During a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 40 patients died (21 liver-related; 19 non-liver-related), 12 developed HCC, and 10 underwent transplantations. The 5-, 10-, and 15-year transplant-free survival probabilities were 91.0%, 78.1%, and 58.9%, respectively. Independent risk factors for adverse events were increasing age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.05), cirrhosis (HR 8.53), and suboptimal treatment response (HR 3.06). Aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index at 1 year (APRI-r1) in combination with treatment response optimized the risk stratification. The performances of the GLOBE, UK-PBC scores, Rotterdam criteria, and APRI-r1 were comparable in predicting adverse events. The area under receiver operating curves within 5, 10, and 15 years were as follows-GLOBE score: 0.83, 0.85, and 0.85, respectively; UK-PBC score: 0.89, 0.83, and 0.79, respectively; Rotterdam criteria: 0.82, 0.76, and 0.80, respectively; APRI-r1: 0.80, 0.83, and 0.77, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The UK-PBC, GLOBE scores, Rotterdam criteria, and APRI-r1 had good and comparable prognostic prediction values for Chinese PBC patients receiving UCDA. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/246564 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 3.0 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.413 |
PubMed Central ID | |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Cheung, KSM | - |
dc.contributor.author | Seto, WKW | - |
dc.contributor.author | Fung, JYY | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lai, CL | - |
dc.contributor.author | Yuen, RMF | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-09-18T02:30:42Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2017-09-18T02:30:42Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2017 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology, 2017, v. 8 n. 6, article no. e100, p. 1-10 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2155-384X | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/246564 | - |
dc.description.abstract | OBJECTIVES: We aimed to validate the prognostic models for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in Chinese patients receiving ursodeoxycholic acid (UCDA), and to compare their performances in predicting the long-term survival. METHODS: Chinese patients with PBC from a tertiary center were identified via electronic search of hospital medical registry. Risk factors associated with adverse events (liver transplantation or death from liver-related causes including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver decompensation) were determined. Transplant-free survival was defined as survival free of liver-related death or transplantation. RESULTS: Of the 144 patients, 41 (28.5%) had baseline cirrhosis. The median age at diagnosis was 57.8 years. During a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 40 patients died (21 liver-related; 19 non-liver-related), 12 developed HCC, and 10 underwent transplantations. The 5-, 10-, and 15-year transplant-free survival probabilities were 91.0%, 78.1%, and 58.9%, respectively. Independent risk factors for adverse events were increasing age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.05), cirrhosis (HR 8.53), and suboptimal treatment response (HR 3.06). Aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index at 1 year (APRI-r1) in combination with treatment response optimized the risk stratification. The performances of the GLOBE, UK-PBC scores, Rotterdam criteria, and APRI-r1 were comparable in predicting adverse events. The area under receiver operating curves within 5, 10, and 15 years were as follows-GLOBE score: 0.83, 0.85, and 0.85, respectively; UK-PBC score: 0.89, 0.83, and 0.79, respectively; Rotterdam criteria: 0.82, 0.76, and 0.80, respectively; APRI-r1: 0.80, 0.83, and 0.77, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The UK-PBC, GLOBE scores, Rotterdam criteria, and APRI-r1 had good and comparable prognostic prediction values for Chinese PBC patients receiving UCDA. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Nature Publishing Group: Open Access Journals - Option A. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.nature.com/ctg/index.html | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology | - |
dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | - |
dc.title | Prognostic Factors for Transplant-Free Survival and Validation of Prognostic Models in Chinese Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Cheung, KSM: cks634@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Seto, WKW: wkseto@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Fung, JYY: jfung@hkucc.hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Lai, CL: hrmelcl@hkucc.hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Yuen, RMF: mfyuen@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Cheung, KSM=rp02532 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Seto, WKW=rp01659 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Fung, JYY=rp00518 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Lai, CL=rp00314 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Yuen, RMF=rp00479 | - |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/ctg.2017.23 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 28640288 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC5518946 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85035201627 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 277295 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 302527 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 8 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 6 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | article no. e100, p. 1 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | article no. e100, p. 10 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000408144200007 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 2155-384X | - |