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- Publisher Website: 10.1038/s41467-020-16585-y
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85085909372
- PMID: 32487990
- WOS: WOS:000543974800006
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Article: Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir
Title | Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir |
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Authors | |
Issue Date | 2020 |
Citation | Nature Communications, 2020, v. 11, n. 1, article no. 2750 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000–650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017–2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/296213 |
PubMed Central ID | |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Du, Zhanwei | - |
dc.contributor.author | Nugent, Ciara | - |
dc.contributor.author | Galvani, Alison P. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Krug, Robert M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Meyers, Lauren Ancel | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-02-11T04:53:04Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2021-02-11T04:53:04Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Nature Communications, 2020, v. 11, n. 1, article no. 2750 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/296213 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000–650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017–2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Nature Communications | - |
dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | - |
dc.title | Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41467-020-16585-y | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 32487990 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC7265527 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85085909372 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 327510 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 11 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 1 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | article no. 2750 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | article no. 2750 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2041-1723 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000543974800006 | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 2041-1723 | - |