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- Publisher Website: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102817
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85122637884
- WOS: WOS:000820182300015
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Article: Does terrorism make people pessimistic? Evidence from a natural experiment
Title | Does terrorism make people pessimistic? Evidence from a natural experiment |
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Authors | |
Keywords | Africa Low-casualty Pessimism Terrorist attacks |
Issue Date | 2022 |
Citation | Journal of Development Economics, 2022, v. 155, article no. 102817 How to Cite? |
Abstract | This paper uses a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of low-casualty terrorist attacks on pessimistic beliefs in Africa. Distinct from fear, pessimism has been found to hinder optimal economic decisions and well-being. By comparing survey responses of people interviewed in the same area immediately before and after a terrorist attack, we find that terrorism increases pessimism about future living conditions by 11 percentage points. The effect is not driven by the direct damages of attacks or people's expectations of the national economy, and is stronger for attacks targeting religious figures and among respondents living in rural areas. Further analysis suggests that this effect tends to shift people to more accurate beliefs. Our results thus show that even low-casualty terrorist attacks have a substantial impact on people's beliefs. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/311975 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 5.1 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.737 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Guo, Shiqi | - |
dc.contributor.author | An, Jiafu | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-04-06T04:31:53Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-04-06T04:31:53Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Journal of Development Economics, 2022, v. 155, article no. 102817 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0304-3878 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/311975 | - |
dc.description.abstract | This paper uses a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of low-casualty terrorist attacks on pessimistic beliefs in Africa. Distinct from fear, pessimism has been found to hinder optimal economic decisions and well-being. By comparing survey responses of people interviewed in the same area immediately before and after a terrorist attack, we find that terrorism increases pessimism about future living conditions by 11 percentage points. The effect is not driven by the direct damages of attacks or people's expectations of the national economy, and is stronger for attacks targeting religious figures and among respondents living in rural areas. Further analysis suggests that this effect tends to shift people to more accurate beliefs. Our results thus show that even low-casualty terrorist attacks have a substantial impact on people's beliefs. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of Development Economics | - |
dc.subject | Africa | - |
dc.subject | Low-casualty | - |
dc.subject | Pessimism | - |
dc.subject | Terrorist attacks | - |
dc.title | Does terrorism make people pessimistic? Evidence from a natural experiment | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102817 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85122637884 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 155 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | article no. 102817 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | article no. 102817 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000820182300015 | - |