Independent risk factors and predictive score for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM: To determine whether gender, age, HBV genotype, core promoter and precore mutations, HBeAg/anti-HBe status, HBV DNA and ALT levels and cirrhosis on presentation were independent risk factors and derive a novel risk score for HCC development. METHODS: 820 patients with the above parameters checked were followed up (mean 76.8 months) for the HCC occurrence. RESULTS: Cox regression analysis showed that male [p = 0.025, relative risk (RR) 2.98], increasing age (p84%; specificity >76%) to predict the 5- and 10-year risks for HCC development. The AUC for the 5- and 10-year prediction were 0.88 and 0.89 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk score, based on age, gender, HBV DNA levels, core promoter mutations and cirrhosis, can estimate the 5 and 10 years chance of HCC development. It can be used to identify high-risk CHB patients for treatment and screening of HCC.