Uncertainty, capital allocation and business cycle: theory and evidence

Abstract

This thesis consists of two essays analyzing the effect of uncertainty in macroeconomic

and financial settings.

Inspired by the counter-cyclical pattern of uncertainty and the role played by

capital reallocation in Total Factor Productivity, we propose a theoretical viewpoint

on uncertainty-driven business cycles in the first essay. Relying on the interaction

between financial market and real sector, we are able to build up a transmission

mechanism from uncertainty to business cycle by introducing a financial contract

between firms and financial intermediaries. By setting up two types of firm with different

production technology in a general equilibrium model, we show that information

asymmetry leads firms with financing needs to be financially constrained. Due

to information asymmetry, first best case is unachievable and production resources

are allocated more to firms without financing needs. When uncertainty changes, the

lending decision of financial intermediary also changes, further affecting firms’ production

capacities. Production resources are reallocated between the two types of

firms which generates fluctuations in TFP and other aggregates. More importantly,

firms with financing needs is assumed with better production technology than the

one adopted by the other type on average. Increase in uncertainty worsens the informational

problem, reduces funds provided to firms with better technology, causes

reallocation of resources to the other type, and further decreases productivity of the

economy as a whole. This is in line with an economic downturn and also consistent

with the counter-cyclicality of uncertainty. We also conduct a quantitative analysis

by calibrating the model to the data and the estimated results provide corroborating

evidence for the theory.

Using a merged data-set of US firms during years 1971-2008, we empirically

examine the impact of uncertainty on capital reallocation via financial friction in

the second essay. By adopting KZ index as an indicator for firms’ financial statuses,

we decompose the uncertainty-capital reallocation relation into three hypotheses.

Using cross-sectional dispersion of stock return as a measure for uncertainty, we

find that uncertainty is negatively associated with firms’ financial statuses. A firm

with high uncertainty level is more likely to be in a low position of financial status.

Second, uncertainty is in a negative relation with capital reallocation, which means

capital reallocation decreases at firm level when uncertainty increases. Third, by

sorting firms into different groups based on their financial statuses, we find that

firms which are in worse financial situation are more responsive to uncertainty

change. The finding is consistent with our prediction that uncertainty affects capital

reallocation through financial friction. We employ both reduced-form and structural

estimation strategies to examine our predictions, and all regression results are

supportive. To further test the role of financial friction in the relation, we also sort

firms into different groups by SIC code. And we find that, firms in industries relying

more on financial market for external financing are more responsive to uncertainty

change.