File Download
There are no files associated with this item.
Links for fulltext
(May Require Subscription)
- Publisher Website: 10.1007/s11425-011-4224-7
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-80052021898
- WOS: WOS:000294223000001
- Find via
Supplementary
- Citations:
- Appears in Collections:
Article: A nonparametric estimation of the infection curve
Title | A nonparametric estimation of the infection curve |
---|---|
Authors | |
Keywords | Back-Projection Epidemic Infection Curve Nonparametric Method |
Issue Date | 2011 |
Publisher | Science China Press, co-published with Springer. The Journal's web site is located at http://math.scichina.com/english/ |
Citation | Science China Mathematics, 2011, v. 54 n. 9, p. 1815-1828 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Predicting the future course of an epidemic depends on being able to estimate the current numbers of infected individuals. However, while back-projection techniques allow reliable estimation of the numbers of infected individuals in the more distant past, they are less reliable in the recent past. We propose two new nonparametric methods to estimate the unobserved numbers of infected individuals in the recent past in an epidemic. The proposed methods are noniterative, easily computed and asymptotically normal with simple variance formulas. Simulations show that the proposed methods are much more robust and accurate than the existing back projection method, especially for the recent past, which is our primary interest. We apply the proposed methods to the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndorme (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. © 2011 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/172263 |
ISSN | 2021 Impact Factor: 1.157 2020 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.818 |
ISI Accession Number ID | |
References |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Lin, HZ | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Yip, PSF | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Huggins, RM | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-10-30T06:21:02Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-10-30T06:21:02Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Science China Mathematics, 2011, v. 54 n. 9, p. 1815-1828 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 1674-7283 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/172263 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Predicting the future course of an epidemic depends on being able to estimate the current numbers of infected individuals. However, while back-projection techniques allow reliable estimation of the numbers of infected individuals in the more distant past, they are less reliable in the recent past. We propose two new nonparametric methods to estimate the unobserved numbers of infected individuals in the recent past in an epidemic. The proposed methods are noniterative, easily computed and asymptotically normal with simple variance formulas. Simulations show that the proposed methods are much more robust and accurate than the existing back projection method, especially for the recent past, which is our primary interest. We apply the proposed methods to the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndorme (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. © 2011 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. | en_US |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Science China Press, co-published with Springer. The Journal's web site is located at http://math.scichina.com/english/ | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartof | Science China Mathematics | en_US |
dc.subject | Back-Projection | en_US |
dc.subject | Epidemic | en_US |
dc.subject | Infection Curve | en_US |
dc.subject | Nonparametric Method | en_US |
dc.title | A nonparametric estimation of the infection curve | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.email | Yip, PSF: sfpyip@hku.hk | en_US |
dc.identifier.authority | Yip, PSF=rp00596 | en_US |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s11425-011-4224-7 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-80052021898 | en_US |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 221428 | - |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-80052021898&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 54 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issue | 9 | en_US |
dc.identifier.spage | 1815 | en_US |
dc.identifier.epage | 1828 | en_US |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000294223000001 | - |
dc.publisher.place | China | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lin, HZ=13907979600 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Yip, PSF=7102503720 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Huggins, RM=7102879186 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issnl | 1869-1862 | - |