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Article: Improved moment-estimation formulas using more than three subjective fractiles
Title | Improved moment-estimation formulas using more than three subjective fractiles |
---|---|
Authors | |
Keywords | Mean Estimation Moment Estimation Standard Deviation Estimation Subjective Fractiles |
Issue Date | 1998 |
Publisher | INFORMS. The Journal's web site is located at http://mansci.pubs.informs.org |
Citation | Management Science, 1998, v. 44 n. 3, p. 346-351 How to Cite? |
Abstract | PERT-type subjective estimations are used in many stochastic decision models to estimate the random variables' mean and standard deviation (s.d.). The approach is based on the beta-distribution assumption; also, most PERT-type formulas use only three estimated fractiles. We point out that: (i) it is desirable to consider a substantially richer set of distributions than the beta in developing PERT-type formulas; (ii) it may be beneficial to use more than three fractile-estimates in PERT-type formulas. We then develop formulas for estimating the mean and s.d. that are based on a substantially richer set of distributions than the beta and that use more than three estimated fractiles. These formulas perform better than the best currently-available formulas when the subjective distribution is not restricted to be beta. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/177868 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 4.6 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 5.438 |
ISI Accession Number ID | |
References |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Lau, HS | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Lau, AHL | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Ho, CJ | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-12-19T09:40:37Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-12-19T09:40:37Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 1998 | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Management Science, 1998, v. 44 n. 3, p. 346-351 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0025-1909 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/177868 | - |
dc.description.abstract | PERT-type subjective estimations are used in many stochastic decision models to estimate the random variables' mean and standard deviation (s.d.). The approach is based on the beta-distribution assumption; also, most PERT-type formulas use only three estimated fractiles. We point out that: (i) it is desirable to consider a substantially richer set of distributions than the beta in developing PERT-type formulas; (ii) it may be beneficial to use more than three fractile-estimates in PERT-type formulas. We then develop formulas for estimating the mean and s.d. that are based on a substantially richer set of distributions than the beta and that use more than three estimated fractiles. These formulas perform better than the best currently-available formulas when the subjective distribution is not restricted to be beta. | en_US |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | INFORMS. The Journal's web site is located at http://mansci.pubs.informs.org | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartof | Management Science | en_US |
dc.subject | Mean Estimation | en_US |
dc.subject | Moment Estimation | en_US |
dc.subject | Standard Deviation Estimation | en_US |
dc.subject | Subjective Fractiles | en_US |
dc.title | Improved moment-estimation formulas using more than three subjective fractiles | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.email | Lau, AHL: ahlau@business.hku.hk | en_US |
dc.identifier.authority | Lau, AHL=rp01072 | en_US |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1287/mnsc.44.3.346 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-0032024926 | en_US |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-0032024926&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 44 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issue | 3 | en_US |
dc.identifier.spage | 346 | en_US |
dc.identifier.epage | 351 | en_US |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000072930000006 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lau, HS=7201497264 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lau, AHL=7202626080 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Ho, CJ=7404653703 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0025-1909 | - |