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Article: Using Tocher's curve to convert subjective quantile-estimates into a probability distribution function
Title | Using Tocher's curve to convert subjective quantile-estimates into a probability distribution function |
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Authors | |
Issue Date | 1999 |
Publisher | Taylor & Francis Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/0740817x.asp |
Citation | IIE Transactions (Institute Of Industrial Engineers), 1999, v. 31 n. 3, p. 245-254 How to Cite? |
Abstract | One standard approach for estimating a subjective distribution is to elicit subjective quantiles from a human expert. However, most decision-making models require a random variable's moments and/or distribution function instead of its quantiles. In the literature little attention has been given to the problem of converting a given set of subjective quantiles into moments and/or a distribution function. We show that this conversion problem is far from trivial, and that the most commonly used conversion procedure often produces large errors. An alternative procedure using `Tocher's curve' is proposed, and its performance is evaluated with a wide variety of test distributions. The method is shown to be more accurate than a commonly used procedure. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/177873 |
ISSN | 2018 Impact Factor: 2.884 |
ISI Accession Number ID | |
References |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Lau, HS | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Lau, AHL | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Kottas, JF | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-12-19T09:40:39Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-12-19T09:40:39Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 1999 | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | IIE Transactions (Institute Of Industrial Engineers), 1999, v. 31 n. 3, p. 245-254 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0740-817X | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/177873 | - |
dc.description.abstract | One standard approach for estimating a subjective distribution is to elicit subjective quantiles from a human expert. However, most decision-making models require a random variable's moments and/or distribution function instead of its quantiles. In the literature little attention has been given to the problem of converting a given set of subjective quantiles into moments and/or a distribution function. We show that this conversion problem is far from trivial, and that the most commonly used conversion procedure often produces large errors. An alternative procedure using `Tocher's curve' is proposed, and its performance is evaluated with a wide variety of test distributions. The method is shown to be more accurate than a commonly used procedure. | en_US |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Taylor & Francis Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/0740817x.asp | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartof | IIE Transactions (Institute of Industrial Engineers) | en_US |
dc.title | Using Tocher's curve to convert subjective quantile-estimates into a probability distribution function | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.email | Lau, AHL: ahlau@business.hku.hk | en_US |
dc.identifier.authority | Lau, AHL=rp01072 | en_US |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1023/A:1007649822390 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-0032671876 | en_US |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-0032671876&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 31 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issue | 3 | en_US |
dc.identifier.spage | 245 | en_US |
dc.identifier.epage | 254 | en_US |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000081297300005 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lau, HS=7201497264 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lau, AHL=7202626080 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Kottas, JF=6701582049 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0740-817X | - |