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- Publisher Website: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199703)16:2<83::AID-FOR646>3.0.CO;2-W
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-18944401522
- WOS: WOS:A1997WP38300002
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Article: An improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution
Title | An improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution |
---|---|
Authors | |
Keywords | Estimating Mean Estimating Standard Deviation Pert-Type Estimation Subjective Estimation Using Fractiles |
Issue Date | 1997 |
Publisher | John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 |
Citation | Journal Of Forecasting, 1997, v. 16 n. 2, p. 83-95 How to Cite? |
Abstract | The literature offers many formulas for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution (a well-known example is the PERT formulas). This paper shows that some basic underlying assumptions behind most of these formulas are inappropriate; a more appropriate framework is then proposed. We then develop new formulas that can estimate mean and standard deviation much more accurately than the currently available formulas. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/177942 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 3.4 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.885 |
ISI Accession Number ID | |
References |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Lau, HS | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Lau, AHL | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Y | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-12-19T09:40:55Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-12-19T09:40:55Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 1997 | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Journal Of Forecasting, 1997, v. 16 n. 2, p. 83-95 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0277-6693 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/177942 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The literature offers many formulas for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution (a well-known example is the PERT formulas). This paper shows that some basic underlying assumptions behind most of these formulas are inappropriate; a more appropriate framework is then proposed. We then develop new formulas that can estimate mean and standard deviation much more accurately than the currently available formulas. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | en_US |
dc.language | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of Forecasting | en_US |
dc.subject | Estimating Mean | en_US |
dc.subject | Estimating Standard Deviation | en_US |
dc.subject | Pert-Type Estimation | en_US |
dc.subject | Subjective Estimation | en_US |
dc.subject | Using Fractiles | en_US |
dc.title | An improved approach for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.email | Lau, AHL: ahlau@business.hku.hk | en_US |
dc.identifier.authority | Lau, AHL=rp01072 | en_US |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199703)16:2<83::AID-FOR646>3.0.CO;2-W | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-18944401522 | en_US |
dc.relation.references | http://www.scopus.com/mlt/select.url?eid=2-s2.0-18944401522&selection=ref&src=s&origin=recordpage | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 16 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issue | 2 | en_US |
dc.identifier.spage | 83 | en_US |
dc.identifier.epage | 95 | en_US |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:A1997WP38300002 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United Kingdom | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lau, HS=7201497264 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Lau, AHL=7202626080 | en_US |
dc.identifier.scopusauthorid | Zhang, Y=15072359600 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0277-6693 | - |