The effectiveness of age-specific isolation policies on epidemics of influenza A (H1N1) in a large city in central South China

Abstract

Copyright © 2015 Liu et al.This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. During the early stage of a pandemic, isolation is the most effective means of controlling transmission. However, the effectiveness of age-specific isolation policies is not clear; especially little information is available concerning their effectiveness in China. Epidemiological and serological survey data in the city of Changsha were employed to estimate key model parameters. The average infectious period (date of recovery - date of symptom onset) of influenza A (H1N1) was 5.2 days. Of all infected persons, 45.93% were asymptomatic. The basic reproduction number of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was 1.82. Based on the natural history of influenza A (H1N1), we built an extended susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed model, taking age groups: 0-5, 6-14, 15-24, 25-59, and ≥60 years into consideration for isolation. Without interventions, the total attack rates (TARs) in each age group were 42.73%, 41.95%, 20.51%, 45.03%, and 37.49%, respectively. Although the isolation of 25-59 years-old persons was the most effective, the TAR of individuals of aged 0-5 and 6-14 could not be reduced. Paradoxically, isolating individuals ≥60 year olds was not predicted to be an effective way of reducing the TAR in this group but isolating the age-group 25-59 did, which implies inter-age-group transmission from the latter to the former is significant. Isolating multiple age groups increased effectiveness. The most effective combined isolation target groups were of 6-14 + 25-59 year olds, 6-14 + 15-24 + 25-59 year olds, and 0-5 + 6-14 + 25-59 + ≥60 year olds. The last of these isolation schemas reduced the TAR of the total population from 39.64% to 0.006%, which was exceptionally close to the effectiveness of isolating all five age groups (TAR = 0.004%).