Modeling annual supreme court influence: The role of citation practices and judicial tenure in determining precedent network growth

Abstract

Using networks generated from the entire set of United States Supreme Court decision citations, this paper models yearly court influence as a function of system stability, complexity, precedent age and judicial tenure. The model demonstrates that decisions written in years when the mean judicial age is low and judges are more stable in their use of precedent, more conservative in terms of the age of precedent cited, and the yearly citation network is less complex are more likely to be cited in future years. By incorporating system endogenous variables in modeling efforts, this paper contributes to the development of complex legal systems studies, and proposes new ways to develop the field. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.