From past to future: Hong Kong’s democratic movement

Abstract

Hong Kongers have been striving for democracy for more than thirty years. The ultimate aim stated in Hong Kong’s constitutional instrument, the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (“Basic Law”), is that Hong Kongers can elect the Chief Executive (“CE”) and all members of the Legislative Council by universal and equal suffrage. This is still not reached. This article aims to examine the chance for Hong Kong to establish a genuine democratic system in the future. To project a possible path that Hong Kong’s democratic development may take in the coming years, the past of Hong Kong’s democratic development must first be reviewed. The pace and the form of the changes in Hong Kong’s political system in the past thirty years were shaped by two main factors. The first was the stance of Hong Kong’s sovereign. In the past years, all important decisions concerning Hong Kong’s political sys- tem were made by her sovereigns, primarily on the basis of their concerns rather than the democratic wish of Hong Kongers. The second was the political attitude of Hong Kongers. They have changed from being apolitical to highly politically motivated in their desire to establish a democratic system in Hong Kong. These two factors are still influencing the trajectory of Hong Kong’s demo- cratic development. Looking ahead, if the Chinese Communist Party (“CCP”) still refuses to loosen her grip over Hong Kong, the chance to establish a genuine democratic system in Hong Kong is small. The opportunity will only come if the CCP is prepared to adjust her policy towards Hong Kong or is so occupied by internal problems that she has no room to care about matters happening here. However, if that opportunity comes, Hong Kongers must be ready and have developed the capacity to grasp it. Democratic development in Hong Kong may also “loop back” and bring changes to the political landscape in China. The first part examines why there was no large-scale democratic movement in Hong Kong, even though Hong Kong had reached a high level of economic development in the 1980s, and why there was still no advancement in Hong Kong’s democracy after a very sizeable democracy movement in 2014. The sec- ond part projects what may be the future of Hong Kong’s democracy in light of China’s political development. The third part gives suggestions on what Hong Kong’s democratic movement can do now.