Model for Predicting Toxicities of Metals and Metalloids in Coastal Marine Environments Worldwide

Abstract

Metals can pose hazards to marine species and can adversely affect structures and functions of communities of marine species. However, little is known about how structural properties of metal atoms combined with current geographical and climatic conditions affect their toxic potencies. A mathematical model, based on quantitative structure–activity relationships and species sensitivity distributions (QSAR-SSD) was developed by use of acute toxicities of six metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, and Zn) to eight marine species and accessory environmental conditions. The model was then used to predict toxicities of 31 metals and metalloids and then to investigate relationships between acute water quality criteria (WQC) and environmental conditions in coastal marine environments. The model was also used to predict WQC in the coastal areas of different countries. Given global climate change, the QSAR-SSD model allows development of WQC for metals that will be protective of marine ecosystems under various conditions related to changes in global climate. This approach could be of enormous benefit in delivering an evidence-based approach to support regulatory decision making in management of metal and metalloids in marine waters.