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- Publisher Website: 10.1093/aje/kwz227
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85084693489
- PMID: 31598648
- WOS: WOS:000537446900007
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Article: Distinguishing Causation from Correlation in the Use of Correlates of Protection to Evaluate and Develop Influenza Vaccines
Title | Distinguishing Causation from Correlation in the Use of Correlates of Protection to Evaluate and Develop Influenza Vaccines |
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Authors | |
Keywords | Influenza Human Influenza Vaccines Biomarkers Terminology as Topi |
Issue Date | 2020 |
Publisher | Oxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/ |
Citation | American Journal of Epidemiology, 2020, v. 189 n. 3, p. 185-192 How to Cite? |
Abstract | There is increasing attention on the need to identify new immune markers for the evaluation of existing and new influenza vaccines. Immune markers that could predict individual protection against infection and disease, commonly called “correlates of protection” (CoPs), play an important role in vaccine development and licensing. Here, we discuss the epidemiological considerations when evaluating immune markers as potential CoPs for influenza vaccines and emphasize the distinction between correlation and causation. While an immune marker that correlates well with protection from infection may be used as a predictor of vaccine efficacy, it should be distinguished from an immune marker that plays a mechanistic role in conferring protection against a clinical endpoint, as the latter may be a more reliable predictor of vaccine efficacy and a more appropriate target for rational vaccine design. To clearly distinguish mechanistic and non-mechanistic CoPs, we suggest using the term “correlates of protection” for non-mechanistic CoPs, and “mediators of protection” for mechanistic CoPs. Furthermore, as the interactions among and relative importance of correlates or mediators of protection may vary according to age or prior vaccine experience, the effect sizes and thresholds for protective effects for CoPs may also vary in different segments of the population. |
Description | Link to Accepted manuscript |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/277760 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 5.0 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.837 |
PubMed Central ID | |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Lim, WW | - |
dc.contributor.author | Leung, NHL | - |
dc.contributor.author | Sullivan, SG | - |
dc.contributor.author | Tchetgen, EJT | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cowling, BJ | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-10-04T08:00:47Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2019-10-04T08:00:47Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | American Journal of Epidemiology, 2020, v. 189 n. 3, p. 185-192 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0002-9262 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/277760 | - |
dc.description | Link to Accepted manuscript | - |
dc.description.abstract | There is increasing attention on the need to identify new immune markers for the evaluation of existing and new influenza vaccines. Immune markers that could predict individual protection against infection and disease, commonly called “correlates of protection” (CoPs), play an important role in vaccine development and licensing. Here, we discuss the epidemiological considerations when evaluating immune markers as potential CoPs for influenza vaccines and emphasize the distinction between correlation and causation. While an immune marker that correlates well with protection from infection may be used as a predictor of vaccine efficacy, it should be distinguished from an immune marker that plays a mechanistic role in conferring protection against a clinical endpoint, as the latter may be a more reliable predictor of vaccine efficacy and a more appropriate target for rational vaccine design. To clearly distinguish mechanistic and non-mechanistic CoPs, we suggest using the term “correlates of protection” for non-mechanistic CoPs, and “mediators of protection” for mechanistic CoPs. Furthermore, as the interactions among and relative importance of correlates or mediators of protection may vary according to age or prior vaccine experience, the effect sizes and thresholds for protective effects for CoPs may also vary in different segments of the population. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Oxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/ | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | American Journal of Epidemiology | - |
dc.rights | Post-print: This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in [American Journal of Epidemiology] following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version [insert complete citation information here] is available online at: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwz227]. | - |
dc.subject | Influenza | - |
dc.subject | Human | - |
dc.subject | Influenza Vaccines | - |
dc.subject | Biomarkers | - |
dc.subject | Terminology as Topi | - |
dc.title | Distinguishing Causation from Correlation in the Use of Correlates of Protection to Evaluate and Develop Influenza Vaccines | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Leung, NHL: nanleung@connect.hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Cowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Leung, NHL=rp02637 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Cowling, BJ=rp01326 | - |
dc.description.nature | postprint | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1093/aje/kwz227 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 31598648 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC7217279 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85084693489 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 306065 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 189 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 3 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 185 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 192 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000537446900007 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 0002-9262 | - |