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Article: Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States
Title | Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States |
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Authors | |
Keywords | air quality climate change climate effect concentration (composition) forest fire |
Issue Date | 2020 |
Publisher | Copernicus GmbH. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net |
Citation | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020, v. 20, p. 8827-8838 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Almost USD 3 billion per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the western United States, with a consequent increase in the number and size of wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused wildfires in the national forests and parks of the western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ∼53 % by the late 21st century during the fire season in the national forests and parks of the western United States. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows enhanced lightning-caused fire activity, especially over forests in the northern states. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/285275 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 5.2 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.138 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Li, Y | - |
dc.contributor.author | Mickley, LJ | - |
dc.contributor.author | Liu, P | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kaplan, JO | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-08-18T03:51:55Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-08-18T03:51:55Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020, v. 20, p. 8827-8838 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1680-7316 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/285275 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Almost USD 3 billion per year is appropriated for wildfire management on public land in the United States. Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the western United States, with a consequent increase in the number and size of wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. To assess the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused wildfires in the national forests and parks of the western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality, we link a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJ-LMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke fine particulate matter (PM), with mass concentration increases of ∼53 % by the late 21st century during the fire season in the national forests and parks of the western United States. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations double by 2100. RCP8.5 also shows enhanced lightning-caused fire activity, especially over forests in the northern states. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Copernicus GmbH. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | - |
dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | - |
dc.subject | air quality | - |
dc.subject | climate change | - |
dc.subject | climate effect | - |
dc.subject | concentration (composition) | - |
dc.subject | forest fire | - |
dc.title | Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Kaplan, JO: jkaplan@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Kaplan, JO=rp02529 | - |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85090176575 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 312717 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 20 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 8827 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 8838 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000557331900001 | - |
dc.publisher.place | Germany | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 1680-7316 | - |