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Article: Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

TitleEstimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
Authors
KeywordsTide Gages
Sea Level Rise
Satellite Altimetry
Issue Date2020
PublisherNature Research (part of Springer Nature): Fully open access journals. The Journal's web site is located at https://www.nature.com/npjclimatsci/
Citation
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2020, v. 3, p. article no. 18 How to Cite?
AbstractSea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/286201
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 8.5
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.946
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorHorton, BP-
dc.contributor.authorKhan, NS-
dc.contributor.authorCahill, N-
dc.contributor.authorLee, JSH-
dc.contributor.authorShaw, TA-
dc.contributor.authorGarner, AJ-
dc.contributor.authorKemp, AC-
dc.contributor.authorEngelhart, SE-
dc.contributor.authorRahmstorf, S-
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-31T07:00:34Z-
dc.date.available2020-08-31T07:00:34Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.identifier.citationnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2020, v. 3, p. article no. 18-
dc.identifier.issn2397-3722-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/286201-
dc.description.abstractSea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherNature Research (part of Springer Nature): Fully open access journals. The Journal's web site is located at https://www.nature.com/npjclimatsci/-
dc.relation.ispartofnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectTide Gages-
dc.subjectSea Level Rise-
dc.subjectSatellite Altimetry-
dc.titleEstimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailKhan, NS: nskhan@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityKhan, NS=rp02561-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85084998647-
dc.identifier.hkuros313247-
dc.identifier.volume3-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 18-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 18-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000531147200001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-
dc.identifier.issnl2397-3722-

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