Inception of a global atlas of Holocene sea levels

Abstract

Determining the rates, mechanisms and geographic variability of sea-level change is a priority science question for the next decade of ocean research. To address these research priorities, the HOLocene SEA-level variability (HOLSEA) working group is developing the first standardized global synthesis of Holocene relative sea-level data to: (1) estimate the magnitudes and rates of global mean sea-level change during the Holocene; and (2) identify trends in spatial variability and decipher the processes responsible for geographic differences in relative sea-level change. Here we present the efforts of the working group to compile the database, which includes over 12,000 sea-level index points and limiting data from a range of different indicators across seven continents from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We follow a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point, including uncertainties associated with the relationship of each indicator to past sea-level and the methods used to date each indicator. We highlight important challenges overcome to aggregate the standardized global synthesis, and discuss those that still remain. Finally. we apply a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical statistical model to the database to estimate global sea-level variability and spatial patterns in relative sea level and its rates of change, and consider their driving mechanisms. Long-term, this effort will enhance predictions of 21st century sea-level rise, and provide a vital contribution to the assessment of natural hazards with respect to sea-level rise.