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Article: Nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of influenza epidemics in local settings, Sweden, 2008–2019
Title | Nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of influenza epidemics in local settings, Sweden, 2008–2019 |
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Authors | |
Keywords | adult cohort analysis electronic health record epidemic forecasting |
Issue Date | 2020 |
Publisher | US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htm |
Citation | Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2020, v. 26 n. 11, p. 2669-2677 How to Cite? |
Abstract | The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area. |
Description | eid_2-s2.0-85094220836 |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/293478 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 7.2 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.117 |
PubMed Central ID | |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Spreco, A | - |
dc.contributor.author | Eriksson, O | - |
dc.contributor.author | Dahlström, Ö | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cowling, BJ | - |
dc.contributor.author | Biggerstaff, M | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ljunggren, G | - |
dc.contributor.author | Jöud, A | - |
dc.contributor.author | Istefan, E | - |
dc.contributor.author | Timpka, T | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-11-23T08:17:21Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-11-23T08:17:21Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2020, v. 26 n. 11, p. 2669-2677 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1080-6040 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/293478 | - |
dc.description | eid_2-s2.0-85094220836 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008–February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011–12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htm | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Emerging Infectious Diseases | - |
dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | - |
dc.subject | adult | - |
dc.subject | cohort analysis | - |
dc.subject | electronic health record | - |
dc.subject | epidemic | - |
dc.subject | forecasting | - |
dc.title | Nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of influenza epidemics in local settings, Sweden, 2008–2019 | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Cowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Cowling, BJ=rp01326 | - |
dc.description.nature | published_or_final_version | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.3201/eid2611.200448 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 33079036 | - |
dc.identifier.pmcid | PMC7588521 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85094220836 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 319943 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 26 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 11 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 2669 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 2677 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000596803200015 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 1080-6040 | - |