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Article: Different transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and influenza suggest the relative efficiency of isolation/quarantine and social distancing against COVID-19 in China

TitleDifferent transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and influenza suggest the relative efficiency of isolation/quarantine and social distancing against COVID-19 in China
Authors
KeywordsCOVID-19
influenza
effective reproductive number
non-pharmaceutical interventions
efficiency
Issue Date2020
PublisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/cid/
Citation
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2020, Epub 2020-10-20, p. article no. ciaa1584 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China. Methods: In this study, surveillance data of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in 2018–2020 were used to quantify the relative efficiency of NPIs against COVID-19 in China, since isolation/quarantine was not used for the influenza epidemics. Given that the relative age-dependent susceptibility to influenza and COVID-19 may vary, an age-structured susceptible/infected/recovered model was built to explore the efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 under different population susceptibility scenarios. Results: The mean effective reproductive number, Rt, of COVID-19 before NPIs was 2.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.02–2.21). By 11 March 2020, the overall reduction in Rt of COVID-19 was 66.1% (95% CI, 60.1–71.2%). In the epidemiological year 2019–20, influenza transmissibility was reduced by 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3–38.2%) compared with transmissibility in epidemiological year 2018–19. Under the observed contact pattern changes in China, social distancing had similar efficiency against COVID-19 in 3 different scenarios. By assuming the same efficiency of social distancing against seasonal influenza and COVID-19 transmission, isolation/quarantine and social distancing could lead to 48.1% (95% CI, 35.4–58.1%) and 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3–38.2%) reductions of the transmissibility of COVID-19, respectively. Conclusions: Though isolation/quarantine is more effective than social distancing, given that the typical basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 2–3, isolation/quarantine alone could not contain the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in China.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/293659
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 8.2
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.308
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorLei, H-
dc.contributor.authorWu, X-
dc.contributor.authorWang, X-
dc.contributor.authorXu, M-
dc.contributor.authorXie, Y-
dc.contributor.authorDu, X-
dc.contributor.authorCowling, BJ-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Y-
dc.contributor.authorShu, Y-
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-23T08:19:58Z-
dc.date.available2020-11-23T08:19:58Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.identifier.citationClinical Infectious Diseases, 2020, Epub 2020-10-20, p. article no. ciaa1584-
dc.identifier.issn1058-4838-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/293659-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China. Methods: In this study, surveillance data of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in 2018–2020 were used to quantify the relative efficiency of NPIs against COVID-19 in China, since isolation/quarantine was not used for the influenza epidemics. Given that the relative age-dependent susceptibility to influenza and COVID-19 may vary, an age-structured susceptible/infected/recovered model was built to explore the efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 under different population susceptibility scenarios. Results: The mean effective reproductive number, Rt, of COVID-19 before NPIs was 2.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.02–2.21). By 11 March 2020, the overall reduction in Rt of COVID-19 was 66.1% (95% CI, 60.1–71.2%). In the epidemiological year 2019–20, influenza transmissibility was reduced by 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3–38.2%) compared with transmissibility in epidemiological year 2018–19. Under the observed contact pattern changes in China, social distancing had similar efficiency against COVID-19 in 3 different scenarios. By assuming the same efficiency of social distancing against seasonal influenza and COVID-19 transmission, isolation/quarantine and social distancing could lead to 48.1% (95% CI, 35.4–58.1%) and 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3–38.2%) reductions of the transmissibility of COVID-19, respectively. Conclusions: Though isolation/quarantine is more effective than social distancing, given that the typical basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 2–3, isolation/quarantine alone could not contain the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in China. -
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherOxford University Press. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.oxfordjournals.org/our_journals/cid/-
dc.relation.ispartofClinical Infectious Diseases-
dc.rightsPost-print: This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in [insert journal title] following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version [insert complete citation information here] is available online at: xxxxxxx [insert URL that the author will receive upon publication here]. -
dc.subjectCOVID-19-
dc.subjectinfluenza-
dc.subjecteffective reproductive number-
dc.subjectnon-pharmaceutical interventions-
dc.subjectefficiency-
dc.titleDifferent transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and influenza suggest the relative efficiency of isolation/quarantine and social distancing against COVID-19 in China-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailCowling, BJ: bcowling@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityCowling, BJ=rp01326-
dc.description.naturelink_to_OA_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/cid/ciaa1584-
dc.identifier.pmid33080000-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC7665384-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85122546628-
dc.identifier.hkuros319972-
dc.identifier.volumeEpub 2020-10-20-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. ciaa1584-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. ciaa1584-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000735309500107-
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-

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