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- Publisher Website: 10.1080/07421222.2020.1831762
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Article: Signal or Noise in Social Media Discussions: The Role of Network Cohesion in Predicting the Bitcoin Market
Title | Signal or Noise in Social Media Discussions: The Role of Network Cohesion in Predicting the Bitcoin Market |
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Authors | |
Keywords | Social media analytics network cohesion financial technology Bitcoin Fintech |
Issue Date | 2020 |
Publisher | Taylor & Francis Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/mmis20 |
Citation | Journal of Management Information Systems, 2020, v. 37 n. 4, p. 933-956 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Prior studies have shown that social media discussions can be helpful in predicting price movements in financial markets. With the increasingly large amount of social media data, how to effectively distinguish value-relevant information from noise remains an important question. We study this question by investigating the role of network cohesion in the relationship between social media sentiment and price changes in the Bitcoin market. As network cohesion is associated with information correlation within the discussion network, we hypothesize that less cohesive social media discussion networks are better at predicting the next-day returns than more cohesive networks. Both regression analyses and trading simulations based on data collected from Bitcointalk.org confirm our hypothesis. Our findings enrich the literature on the role of social media in financial markets and provide actionable insights for investors to trade based on social media signals. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/294592 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 5.9 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.070 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Xie, P | - |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, H | - |
dc.contributor.author | Hu, YJ | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-12-08T07:39:09Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-12-08T07:39:09Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Journal of Management Information Systems, 2020, v. 37 n. 4, p. 933-956 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0742-1222 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/294592 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Prior studies have shown that social media discussions can be helpful in predicting price movements in financial markets. With the increasingly large amount of social media data, how to effectively distinguish value-relevant information from noise remains an important question. We study this question by investigating the role of network cohesion in the relationship between social media sentiment and price changes in the Bitcoin market. As network cohesion is associated with information correlation within the discussion network, we hypothesize that less cohesive social media discussion networks are better at predicting the next-day returns than more cohesive networks. Both regression analyses and trading simulations based on data collected from Bitcointalk.org confirm our hypothesis. Our findings enrich the literature on the role of social media in financial markets and provide actionable insights for investors to trade based on social media signals. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Taylor & Francis Inc. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/mmis20 | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of Management Information Systems | - |
dc.rights | This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Management Information Systems on 01 Dec 2020, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/07421222.2020.1831762 | - |
dc.subject | Social media analytics | - |
dc.subject | network cohesion | - |
dc.subject | financial technology | - |
dc.subject | Bitcoin | - |
dc.subject | Fintech | - |
dc.title | Signal or Noise in Social Media Discussions: The Role of Network Cohesion in Predicting the Bitcoin Market | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Chen, H: chen19@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Chen, H=rp02520 | - |
dc.description.nature | postprint | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1080/07421222.2020.1831762 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85096998818 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 320570 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 37 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 4 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 933 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 956 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000594446200003 | - |
dc.publisher.place | United States | - |