Coping with uncertainty in transportation : Hong Kong's comprehensive transport studies in the Context of Hong Kong 2030

Abstract

Uncertainties, which exist in both long run and short run of transport planning, is arguably a major factor that challenges policymakers when they make transport planning decisions. Different approaches can be used to cope with uncertainties. During the period of economic take off and rapid population growth from the 1970s to 1990s, the HKSAR Government has conducted three rounds of Comprehensive Transport Studies (CTSs). The CTSs, which followed the conventional transport planning model, have effectively provided information and recommendations to inform transport policy planning during that period. However, entering into the 21st century, the HKSAR Government has not conducted the fourth CTS. Instead, Hong Kong 2030: Planning Vision and Strategy (HK2030) and Hong Kong 2030+: Towards a Planning Vision and Strategy Transcending 2030 (HK2030+) were introduced from the 2000s to 2010s to provide broad concepts and multi-sectoral planning directions in the following 20 to 30 years. This dissertation aims to search for the appropriate approach for the CTSs with the emerging internal and external uncertainties in the context of Hong Kong in the 21st century by reviewing the decision environment, examining the reason why the Hong Kong government has not conducted CTSs beyond 2000, assessing whether planning studies like HK2030/ HK2030+ are sufficient for transport policy formulation, and exploring possible approaches in lieu of the conventional transport planning approach. To address the research aims and objectives, a study using a qualitative approach was conducted. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with two transport experts and six transport users in Hong Kong. Reports and topical reports relevant to CTS and HK2030/ HK2030+ were reviewed. Data were analysed with reference to Christensen’s (1985) framework of coping with uncertainties that highlights the responses to uncertainties should depend on whether an agreed goal is achieved, and whether technology is known. This dissertation argues that the changes of policy approaches from CTSs to HK2030/ HK2030+ were mainly because the environment has changed from “agreed goal and known technology” between the 1970s and the 1990s to “not agreed goal to unknown technology” in the 21st century. Facing deep uncertainty in the 21st century, HK2030/ HK2030+ can serve as an appropriate first step by establishing vision and value for future development as the forecasting models of CTSs become inappropriate with growing uncertainties in both value and technology premises. Moving forward, the dissertation calls for the use of Big Data and building consensus in value with the community for effective transport planning to cope with uncertainties.