Strategic pathways for sustainable transport : national, regional and local perspectives

Abstract

Transport is integral to our mobility and wellbeing. Yet, rapid transport development has led to a multitude of negative environmental and social externalities. Despite the advocation of sustainable development since the 1980s, there are still critical challenges in promoting sustainable transport. They appear in the policy-implementation gap, inconsistent policy measures and diluted policy goals. To address these challenges, this thesis first proposes a conceptual framework of sustainable transport that integrates the concepts of scales and pragmatism. Applying this framework, three sustainable transport issues were identified at national, regional and local scales. The core objective is to analyse scale-specific issues and identify desirable policy practices. Mixed research methods were adopted to examine different research questions.

Nationally, the transport decarbonisation progress (1990-2015) of sixteen leading global economies (developed and developing nations) were examined by a decoupling analysis of transport carbon dioxide (CO2) and Gross National Income. Regionally, the role of electric mobility in realising actual (2000-2018) and potential carbon savings (2019-2050) in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) was both scrutinised by decoupling and backcasting analyses. Locally, favourable factors of sustainable urban ferry services were examined and identified by using methods including international benchmarking and stated-preference experiments.

There are multiple important findings and policy lessons derived from the multiscale analysis. Nationally, most countries could achieve relative decoupling but failed to achieve consistent absolute decoupling between 1990 and 2015. Though divergent pathways are observed, most of them have followed a stable pathway with mild fluctuations. Both developed and developing nations have implemented different policy packages in facilitating transport decarbonisation. Overall, cohesive and integrative planning and implementation is fundamental.

Regionally, transport decoupling in road transport is limited in progress in the two bay areas. Relative decoupling is somehow achieved in recent years but absolute decoupling is not obtained consistently. GBA, like other developing regions with rapid economic and industrial development, has struggled in decarbonising road transport. Some local areas of progressive development in electric mobility (i.e. counties and municipalities) can achieve better decoupling status (e.g. absolute decoupling) than the other counterparts. The backcasting analysis reveals that charging density, traffic regulations, driving range and fuel mix are as critical as monetary measures in facilitating electric mobility.

Locally, the findings of the ferry business model suggest that three passenger-related factors (land-use density and diversity, multimodal transfer & service quality) and two operator-related factors (operational & management strategies and pier infrastructure) are fundamental to sustainable and viable ferry services. In particular, improving the preboarding and onboarding experience in passengers are both paramount. As for operators, devising route-specific management strategies is essential. Government investment in infrastructural maintenance and upgrades that enhance safety, accessibility, quality of waiting areas and the pedestrian environment is conducive to ferry patronage and long-term survival of the ferry industry.

The research focusing on three scale-specific issues has provided valuable insights into policy planning and implementation. Future research can analyse the causality between policy measures and policy outcomes.