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Article: Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities

TitleLimited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities
Authors
Issue Date2021
PublisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosntds.org
Citation
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2021, v. 15 n. 2, p. article no. e0009056 How to Cite?
AbstractWhile many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In this study, we assessed how much variability in COVID-19 activity is attributable to city-level socio-demographic characteristics, meteorological factors, and the control measures imposed. We obtained the daily incidence of COVID-19, city-level characteristics, and meteorological data from a total of 102 cities situated in 27 provinces/municipalities outside Hubei province in China from 1 January 2020 to 8 March 2020, which largely covers almost the first wave of the epidemic. Generalized linear mixed effect models were employed to examine the variance in the incidence of COVID-19 explained by different combinations of variables. According to the results, including the control measure effects in a model substantially raised the explained variance to 45%, which increased by >40% compared to the null model that did not include any covariates. On top of that, including temperature and relative humidity in the model could only result in < 1% increase in the explained variance even though the meteorological factors showed a statistically significant association with the incidence rate of COVID-19. In conclusion, we showed that very limited variability of the COVID-19 incidence was attributable to meteorological factors. Instead, the control measures could explain a larger proportion of variance.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/299263
ISSN
2011 Impact Factor: 4.716
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.258
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorChong, KC-
dc.contributor.authorRAN, J-
dc.contributor.authorLau, SYF-
dc.contributor.authorGoggins, WB-
dc.contributor.authorZhao, S-
dc.contributor.authorWang, P-
dc.contributor.authorTian, L-
dc.contributor.authorWang, MH-
dc.contributor.authorMohammad, KN-
dc.contributor.authorWei, L-
dc.contributor.authorXIONG, X-
dc.contributor.authorLIU, H-
dc.contributor.authorChan, PKS-
dc.contributor.authorWang, H-
dc.contributor.authorWang, Y-
dc.contributor.authorWang, J-
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-10T06:59:20Z-
dc.date.available2021-05-10T06:59:20Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.citationPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2021, v. 15 n. 2, p. article no. e0009056-
dc.identifier.issn1935-2727-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/299263-
dc.description.abstractWhile many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In this study, we assessed how much variability in COVID-19 activity is attributable to city-level socio-demographic characteristics, meteorological factors, and the control measures imposed. We obtained the daily incidence of COVID-19, city-level characteristics, and meteorological data from a total of 102 cities situated in 27 provinces/municipalities outside Hubei province in China from 1 January 2020 to 8 March 2020, which largely covers almost the first wave of the epidemic. Generalized linear mixed effect models were employed to examine the variance in the incidence of COVID-19 explained by different combinations of variables. According to the results, including the control measure effects in a model substantially raised the explained variance to 45%, which increased by >40% compared to the null model that did not include any covariates. On top of that, including temperature and relative humidity in the model could only result in < 1% increase in the explained variance even though the meteorological factors showed a statistically significant association with the incidence rate of COVID-19. In conclusion, we showed that very limited variability of the COVID-19 incidence was attributable to meteorological factors. Instead, the control measures could explain a larger proportion of variance.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.plosntds.org-
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.titleLimited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailTian, L: linweit@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityTian, L=rp01991-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pntd.0009056-
dc.identifier.pmid33626051-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC7904227-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85102096445-
dc.identifier.hkuros322352-
dc.identifier.volume15-
dc.identifier.issue2-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. e0009056-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. e0009056-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000623651800001-
dc.publisher.placeUnited States-

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