File Download
  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Reduction of human mobility matters during early covid-19 outbreaks: Evidence from india, japan and china

TitleReduction of human mobility matters during early covid-19 outbreaks: Evidence from india, japan and china
Authors
KeywordsDuration from COVID-19 onset to diagnosis confirmation
Hospital bed shortage
Reproductive number
Human mobility
Imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Issue Date2021
Citation
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021, v. 18, n. 6, article no. 2826 How to Cite?
AbstractMobility restrictions have been a heated topic during the global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, multiple recent findings have verified its importance in blocking virus spread. Evidence on the association between mobility, cases imported from abroad and local medical resource supplies is limited. To reveal the association, this study quantified the importance of inter-and intra-country mobility in containing virus spread and avoiding hospitalizations during early stages of COVID-19 outbreaks in India, Japan, and China. We calculated the timevarying reproductive number (Rt) and duration from illness onset to diagnosis confirmation (Doc), to represent conditions of virus spread and hospital bed shortages, respectively. Results showed that inter-country mobility fluctuation could explain 80%, 35%, and 12% of the variance in imported cases and could prevent 20 million, 5 million, and 40 million imported cases in India, Japan and China, respectively. The critical time for screening and monitoring of imported cases is 2 weeks at minimum and 4 weeks at maximum, according to the time when the Pearson’s Rs between Rt and imported cases reaches a peak (>0.8). We also found that if local transmission is initiated, a 1% increase in intra-country mobility would result in 1430 (±501), 109 (±181), and 10 (±1) additional bed shortages, as estimated using the Doc in India, Japan, and China, respectively. Our findings provide vital reference for governments to tailor their pre-vaccination policies regarding mobility, especially during future epidemic waves of COVID-19 or similar severe epidemic outbreaks.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/299627
ISSN
2019 Impact Factor: 2.849
2020 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.747
PubMed Central ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorRen, Zhehao-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Ruiyun-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Tao-
dc.contributor.authorChen, Bin-
dc.contributor.authorWang, Che-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Miao-
dc.contributor.authorSong, Shuang-
dc.contributor.authorXiao, Yixiong-
dc.contributor.authorXu, Bo-
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Zhaoyang-
dc.contributor.authorShen, Chong-
dc.contributor.authorGuan, Dabo-
dc.contributor.authorHou, Lin-
dc.contributor.authorDeng, Ke-
dc.contributor.authorBai, Yuqi-
dc.contributor.authorGong, Peng-
dc.contributor.authorXu, Bing-
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-21T03:34:49Z-
dc.date.available2021-05-21T03:34:49Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.citationInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021, v. 18, n. 6, article no. 2826-
dc.identifier.issn1661-7827-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/299627-
dc.description.abstractMobility restrictions have been a heated topic during the global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, multiple recent findings have verified its importance in blocking virus spread. Evidence on the association between mobility, cases imported from abroad and local medical resource supplies is limited. To reveal the association, this study quantified the importance of inter-and intra-country mobility in containing virus spread and avoiding hospitalizations during early stages of COVID-19 outbreaks in India, Japan, and China. We calculated the timevarying reproductive number (Rt) and duration from illness onset to diagnosis confirmation (Doc), to represent conditions of virus spread and hospital bed shortages, respectively. Results showed that inter-country mobility fluctuation could explain 80%, 35%, and 12% of the variance in imported cases and could prevent 20 million, 5 million, and 40 million imported cases in India, Japan and China, respectively. The critical time for screening and monitoring of imported cases is 2 weeks at minimum and 4 weeks at maximum, according to the time when the Pearson’s Rs between Rt and imported cases reaches a peak (>0.8). We also found that if local transmission is initiated, a 1% increase in intra-country mobility would result in 1430 (±501), 109 (±181), and 10 (±1) additional bed shortages, as estimated using the Doc in India, Japan, and China, respectively. Our findings provide vital reference for governments to tailor their pre-vaccination policies regarding mobility, especially during future epidemic waves of COVID-19 or similar severe epidemic outbreaks.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectDuration from COVID-19 onset to diagnosis confirmation-
dc.subjectHospital bed shortage-
dc.subjectReproductive number-
dc.subjectHuman mobility-
dc.subjectImported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-
dc.titleReduction of human mobility matters during early covid-19 outbreaks: Evidence from india, japan and china-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/ijerph18062826-
dc.identifier.pmid33802103-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC8001886-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85102602263-
dc.identifier.volume18-
dc.identifier.issue6-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 2826-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 2826-
dc.identifier.eissn1660-4601-

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats