Risk perception as a double-edged sword in policy compliance in COVID-19 pandemic? A two-phase evaluation from Hong Kong

Abstract

The emphasize of risk has been recognized as a crucial component to effective and successful policy compliance amidst crisis. Yet, in the COVID-19 pandemic, where the dreadfulness of risk may fluctuate according to the severity of the prolonged pandemic and the disposition of public health policy is not confined purely on public health concern, perceived risk may not always lead to policy compliance. Two surveys (During almost zero case period and during biggest outbreak period) were conducted to examine the dichotomous role of perceived risk and perceived suscepitibility in formulating policy compliance in Hong Kong. Although policy compliance increases with scale of outbreak, results from path analysis showed that perceived risk and perceived severity have an indirect role in policy complying behaviour when risk is low. Risk variables, such as attitude, knowledge, benefit and trust, are more central and important in directly shaping policy compliance. More importantly, perceived severity of COVID-19 positively boost policy compliance but perceived suscepitbility will lead to disobedience to public health policy. Meanwhile, Hong Kong citizens have a selective and conscious perference on stringency of public health policy: They welcome more law and order, with increasing magnitude of penalty, but refuse to lockdown measures such as curfew. Regression results implied that demography had a mild contribution to public health policy stringency, with only gender statistically related to the change in policy acceptance. This study calls for further reflection on the role of risk, esepcially perceived susceptibility, in mobilizing policy compliance to COVID-19 related measures.