File Download
There are no files associated with this item.
Links for fulltext
(May Require Subscription)
- Publisher Website: 10.1016/j.jag.2010.09.008
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-79955618014
- WOS: WOS:000290011800013
- Find via
Supplementary
- Citations:
- Appears in Collections:
Article: Dynamic modeling of forest conversion: Simulation of past and future scenarios of rural activities expansion in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon
Title | Dynamic modeling of forest conversion: Simulation of past and future scenarios of rural activities expansion in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon |
---|---|
Authors | |
Keywords | Brazilian Amazon Land use change Landscape dynamics Simulation model Xingu National Park |
Issue Date | 2011 |
Citation | International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2011, v. 13, n. 3, p. 435-446 How to Cite? |
Abstract | The present work is committed to simulate the expansion of agricultural and cattle raising activities within a watershed located in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon. A spatially explicit dynamic model of land cover and land use change was used to provide both past and future scenarios of forest conversion into such rural activities, aiming to identify the role of driving forces of change in the study area. The employed modeling platform - Dinamica EGO - consists in a cellular automata environment that embodies neighborhood-based transition algorithms and spatial feedback approaches in a stochastic multi-step simulation framework. Biophysical variables and legal restrictions drove this simulation model, and statistical validation tests were then conducted for the generated past simulations (from 2000 to 2005), by means of multiple resolution fitting methods. Based on optimal calibration of past simulations, future scenarios were conceived, so as to figure out trends and spatial patterns of forest conversion in the study area for the year 2015. In all simulated scenarios, pasturelands remained nearly stable throughout the analyzed period, while a large expansion in croplands took place. The most optimistic scenario indicates thatmorethan 50% of the natural forest will be replaced by either cropland or pastureland by 2015. This modeling experiment revealed the suitability of the adopted model to simulate processes of forest conversion. It also indicates its possible further applicability in generating simulations of deforestation for areas with expanding rural activities in the Amazon and in tropical forests worldwide. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/309199 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 7.6 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.108 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Maeda, Eduardo E. | - |
dc.contributor.author | de Almeida, Cláudia Maria | - |
dc.contributor.author | de Carvalho Ximenes A., Arimatéa | - |
dc.contributor.author | Formaggio, Antonio R. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Shimabukuro, Yosio E. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Pellikka, Petri | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-12-15T03:59:43Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2021-12-15T03:59:43Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2011, v. 13, n. 3, p. 435-446 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1569-8432 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/309199 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The present work is committed to simulate the expansion of agricultural and cattle raising activities within a watershed located in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon. A spatially explicit dynamic model of land cover and land use change was used to provide both past and future scenarios of forest conversion into such rural activities, aiming to identify the role of driving forces of change in the study area. The employed modeling platform - Dinamica EGO - consists in a cellular automata environment that embodies neighborhood-based transition algorithms and spatial feedback approaches in a stochastic multi-step simulation framework. Biophysical variables and legal restrictions drove this simulation model, and statistical validation tests were then conducted for the generated past simulations (from 2000 to 2005), by means of multiple resolution fitting methods. Based on optimal calibration of past simulations, future scenarios were conceived, so as to figure out trends and spatial patterns of forest conversion in the study area for the year 2015. In all simulated scenarios, pasturelands remained nearly stable throughout the analyzed period, while a large expansion in croplands took place. The most optimistic scenario indicates thatmorethan 50% of the natural forest will be replaced by either cropland or pastureland by 2015. This modeling experiment revealed the suitability of the adopted model to simulate processes of forest conversion. It also indicates its possible further applicability in generating simulations of deforestation for areas with expanding rural activities in the Amazon and in tropical forests worldwide. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation | - |
dc.subject | Brazilian Amazon | - |
dc.subject | Land use change | - |
dc.subject | Landscape dynamics | - |
dc.subject | Simulation model | - |
dc.subject | Xingu National Park | - |
dc.title | Dynamic modeling of forest conversion: Simulation of past and future scenarios of rural activities expansion in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jag.2010.09.008 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-79955618014 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 13 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 3 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 435 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 446 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000290011800013 | - |