Threatened bird species are concentrated in regions with less historical human impacts

Abstract

Previous human activities have a lasting influence on modern biodiversity patterns, especially on the distribution of threatened species. China is a large country, with a high population and a long history of agriculture, but is also a megadiverse country, with over 1370 bird species and over 300 threatened bird species. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to test the associations between distribution of proportion of threatened bird species and anthropogenic activities (changes in forest cover, cropland area and population density) over different periods (between 1700 and 1800, between 1800 and 1900, and between 1900 and 2000). We show that there are higher proportions of threatened bird species in Northern China, especially Northeastern and Northwestern China. Notably, both ordinary least squares models and simultaneous autoregressive models indicate that higher proportions of threatened bird species were largely associated with less historical anthropogenic activities, i.e., smaller changes in forest cover and cropland area in Northern China between 1700 and 1800. These findings emphasize the role of historical land use changes in shaping current distribution of threatened bird species, and highlight the importance of avoiding further anthropogenic activities in the last-of-the-wild regions for biodiversity conservation.