The potential impact of Wudalianchi volcanic eruption on surrounding residents

Abstract

A study of The Potential Impact of Wudalianchi Volcanic Eruption on Surrounding Residents has been carried out because more than 2 million people living within the potential exposure range of Wudalianchi volcanic field and volcanic eruption pose a threat on surrounding residents. There were two eruptions of Wudalianchi volcanic field in recent years, including major eruption of Laoheishan and huoshaoshan volcanoes in 1720 - 1721 and small eruption of Laoheishan volcano in 1776, which were explosive volcanic eruption type and effusive eruption type respectively. Mainly extending in a NE(Northeast) direction, the 14 major Wudalianchi volcanoes have bowl-shaped or funnel-shaped craters, surrounding by lava flows. The West Pacific plate subducted beneath the East Asia continent was the major reason of volcanic eruption in Laoheishan and Huoshaoshan in recent years. There are some volcanic hazards, including lava flow, tephra, volcanic ash after the volcanic eruption. Magma chamber is able to be detected at 7–13 km depth under the Weishan volcano, which the volume is possibly more than 200 km3. It is likely to have potential volcanic eruption in Wudalianchi volcanic field in the near future, which may have an adversely significant impact on surrounding residents, in terms of injury and fatality. The objective of the study is to estimate the impact on surrounding residents from potential volcanic eruption in Wudalianchi volcanic field. In this research, I use Volcanic Explosivity Index(VEI), Population Exposure Index(PEI) and Human Development Index (HDI) to estimate the risk for surrounding residents from potential volcanic eruption in Wudalianchi volcanic field. Data has been obtained from Smithsonian, local government and human development Website,etc., and calculated by various methods. Within 10, 30 and 100 kilometers of Wudalianchi volcanic field, the Population Exposure Index are 6, 5 and 7 respectively. While the Human Development Index of Wudalianchi city is only 0. 761, which is in the range of 0.7-0.79 for high human development. Rough estimate Population Exposure Index(PEI) of each town in Wudalianchi city can also be calculated. Except Shuangquan Township and Tuanjie Township, all towns in Wudalianchi city have the PEI of 7, which indicates that most of residents living in Wudalianchi city are exposed to the vulnerability by volcanic eruption. Certain methods, including monitoring and evacuation should be taken by local government. On the other hand, there are some volcanic geology and landform, which are well preserved and fantastic due to the volcanic eruption, attracting a large number of tourists from all over the world which can increase the income of local residents. In 2015 to 2019, average annual growth rate of tourism income of Wudalianchi Scenic Area was 10.87%. In the first half of 2021, Wudalianchi Scenic Area had attracted 256, 000 tourist arrivals and total tourism revenue of 76. 9 million, up to 333% year-on-year respectively.