Temperature-driven harvest decisions amplify US winter wheat loss under climate warming

Abstract

Most studies quantifying the impacts of climatic variability and warming on crop production have focused on yields and have overlooked potential areal and frequency responses, potentially biasing future projections of food security in a warming world. Here we analyze US winter wheat production from 1970 to 2017 and find that harvest area ratio (harvested area/planted area, HAR) has declined while yields have risen, standing in stark contrast to other US staple crops. Although lower profitability due to declining wheat prices appears to explain the HAR trend, fluctuating wheat yields—largely explained by temperature exposure—drive the interannual variation of HAR. Our analysis suggests that warming-induced declines in HAR are comparable in magnitude to heat-related yield losses, and lower wheat prices amplify the sensitivity of HAR to warming and yield variation. Although irrigation mitigates some temperature-driven yield effects, it does little to change HAR, likely due to infrastructure cost and limited influence on relative profitability. Our results suggest that an accurate quantification of climate impacts on crop production must account for harvested area response, and that future adaptation strategies should not only target crop choice and management but also harvest incentives.