Uncovering the space-time patterns of change with the use of change analyst-Case study of Hong Kong

Abstract

Land use change is a complex process and a variety of factors are involved. Recently, a new field, i.e., post-change detection analysis or change analysis, is emerging as a further step after change detection which has been extensively studied. The study of this paper aims to uncover the spatio-temporal pattern of urban development related to the extension of transportation networks in Hong Kong from 1991 to 2007 including the rail and road system as an application of Change Analyst, a spatial statistics tool designed and developed for land-use change modeling. Change Analyst is applied in this paper to perform logistic regression to analyze change patterns and predict their future trend. The results show that the urbanization process in Hong Kong, particularly the non-built-up to built-up land conversion, is highly associated with the transportation network, surrounding land use, and proximity to the central business district that basically refers to the accessibility from the city center. It is also demonstrated that Change Analyst is a powerful tool which assists in various land use change analyses and predictions. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.