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Article: Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions are crucial for curbing COVID-19 transmission in the course of vaccination: A case study of South and Southeast Asian countries

TitleStringent nonpharmaceutical interventions are crucial for curbing COVID-19 transmission in the course of vaccination: A case study of South and Southeast Asian countries
Authors
KeywordsCOVID-19
Improved SIRV
Nonpharmaceutical interventions
Parameter estimation
Scenario prediction
South and Southeast Asia
Issue Date2021
Citation
Healthcare (Switzerland), 2021, v. 9, n. 10, article no. 1292 How to Cite?
AbstractThe ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy de-signs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible–infected–recov-ered–vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis– Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical in-terventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5–20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to allevi-ating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/329962
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Zebin-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Xin-
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Feng-
dc.contributor.authorJin, Rui-
dc.contributor.authorMa, Chunfeng-
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Bo-
dc.contributor.authorWu, Adan-
dc.contributor.authorNie, Xiaowei-
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-09T03:36:46Z-
dc.date.available2023-08-09T03:36:46Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.citationHealthcare (Switzerland), 2021, v. 9, n. 10, article no. 1292-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/329962-
dc.description.abstractThe ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy de-signs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible–infected–recov-ered–vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis– Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical in-terventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5–20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to allevi-ating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofHealthcare (Switzerland)-
dc.subjectCOVID-19-
dc.subjectImproved SIRV-
dc.subjectNonpharmaceutical interventions-
dc.subjectParameter estimation-
dc.subjectScenario prediction-
dc.subjectSouth and Southeast Asia-
dc.titleStringent nonpharmaceutical interventions are crucial for curbing COVID-19 transmission in the course of vaccination: A case study of South and Southeast Asian countries-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/healthcare9101292-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85116338087-
dc.identifier.volume9-
dc.identifier.issue10-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 1292-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 1292-
dc.identifier.eissn2227-9032-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000713148900001-

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