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Article: Global simulation of fine resolution land use/cover change and estimation of aboveground biomass carbon under the shared socioeconomic pathways

TitleGlobal simulation of fine resolution land use/cover change and estimation of aboveground biomass carbon under the shared socioeconomic pathways
Authors
KeywordsAboveground biomass carbon
Global LUCC simulation
Resolution of 1 km
Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)
Issue Date2022
Citation
Journal of Environmental Management, 2022, v. 312, article no. 114943 How to Cite?
AbstractLand use change driven by human activities plays a critical role in the terrestrial carbon budget through habitat loss and vegetation change. Despite the projections of the global population and economic growth under the framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), little is known of land use/cover change (LUCC) at a fine spatial resolution and how carbon pools respond to LUCC under different SSPs. This study projected the future global LUCC with 1 km spatial resolution and a 10-year time step from 2010 to 2100 and then explored its direct impacts on aboveground biomass carbon (AGB) under SSPs. Scenario SSP3 yields the highest global cropland expansion, among which approximately 48% and 46% is expected to be located in the current forest land and grassland, respectively. Scenario SSP1 has the largest forest expansion and is mainly converted from grassland (54%) and cropland (30%). Due to the spatial change in land use/cover, global AGB loss is expected to reach approximately 3.422 Pg C in 2100 under scenario SSP3 and increases by approximately 0.587 Pg C under scenario SSP1. Africa is expected to lose 30% of AGB under the scenario SSP3. Aboveground biomass in Asia will fix 0.774 Pg C to reverse the AGB loss in 2100 under scenario SSP1. The global carbon loss estimated by the land use products with 10 km and 25 km resolution are less than that with 1 km by 1.5% (ranging from −11.2% in Africa to +34.0% in Oceania) and 2.9% (ranging from −11.8% in Africa to +24.0% in Oceania), respectively. These findings suggest that sufficient spatial details in the existing SSP scenario projections could reduce the uncertainties of AGB assessment, and reasonable land use development and management is a key measure to mitigate the negative impacts of LUCC on the biomass carbon pool.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/330778
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 8.0
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.771
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Li-
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Xiaoping-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Wenhao-
dc.contributor.authorOu, Jinpei-
dc.contributor.authorCai, Yiling-
dc.contributor.authorChen, Guangzhao-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Manchun-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Guangdong-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Honghui-
dc.contributor.authorXu, Xiaocong-
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-05T12:14:11Z-
dc.date.available2023-09-05T12:14:11Z-
dc.date.issued2022-
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Environmental Management, 2022, v. 312, article no. 114943-
dc.identifier.issn0301-4797-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/330778-
dc.description.abstractLand use change driven by human activities plays a critical role in the terrestrial carbon budget through habitat loss and vegetation change. Despite the projections of the global population and economic growth under the framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), little is known of land use/cover change (LUCC) at a fine spatial resolution and how carbon pools respond to LUCC under different SSPs. This study projected the future global LUCC with 1 km spatial resolution and a 10-year time step from 2010 to 2100 and then explored its direct impacts on aboveground biomass carbon (AGB) under SSPs. Scenario SSP3 yields the highest global cropland expansion, among which approximately 48% and 46% is expected to be located in the current forest land and grassland, respectively. Scenario SSP1 has the largest forest expansion and is mainly converted from grassland (54%) and cropland (30%). Due to the spatial change in land use/cover, global AGB loss is expected to reach approximately 3.422 Pg C in 2100 under scenario SSP3 and increases by approximately 0.587 Pg C under scenario SSP1. Africa is expected to lose 30% of AGB under the scenario SSP3. Aboveground biomass in Asia will fix 0.774 Pg C to reverse the AGB loss in 2100 under scenario SSP1. The global carbon loss estimated by the land use products with 10 km and 25 km resolution are less than that with 1 km by 1.5% (ranging from −11.2% in Africa to +34.0% in Oceania) and 2.9% (ranging from −11.8% in Africa to +24.0% in Oceania), respectively. These findings suggest that sufficient spatial details in the existing SSP scenario projections could reduce the uncertainties of AGB assessment, and reasonable land use development and management is a key measure to mitigate the negative impacts of LUCC on the biomass carbon pool.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Environmental Management-
dc.subjectAboveground biomass carbon-
dc.subjectGlobal LUCC simulation-
dc.subjectResolution of 1 km-
dc.subjectShared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)-
dc.titleGlobal simulation of fine resolution land use/cover change and estimation of aboveground biomass carbon under the shared socioeconomic pathways-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114943-
dc.identifier.pmid35325736-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85126688942-
dc.identifier.volume312-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 114943-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 114943-
dc.identifier.eissn1095-8630-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000806543600004-

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