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- Publisher Website: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14533
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85152043790
- WOS: WOS:000970486600001
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Article: The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate In memory of our beloved colleague Dr. Yuantong Shen, who passed away from COVID-19. Thanks for his kind efforts for this paper.
Title | The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate In memory of our beloved colleague Dr. Yuantong Shen, who passed away from COVID-19. Thanks for his kind efforts for this paper. |
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Authors | |
Keywords | COVID-19 Delayed-rejection adaptive metropolis method Dynamic social contact rate Epidemic control General dynamic model Restriction policy |
Issue Date | 2023 |
Citation | Heliyon, 2023, v. 9, n. 3, article no. e14533 How to Cite? |
Abstract | The social contact rate has influenced the transmission of COVID-19, with more social contact resulting in more contagion cases. We chose 18 countries with the most confirmed cases in the first 200 days after the Wuhan lockdown. This was the first study using the dynamic social contact rate to simulate the epidemic under diverse restriction policies over 500 days since the COVID-19 outbreak. The developed General Dynamic Model suggested that the probability of contagion ranged from 12.52% to 39.39% in the epidemic. The geometric mean of the social contact rates differed from 18.21% to 96.00% between countries. The restriction policies in developed economies were 3.5 times more efficient than in developing economies. We compare the effectiveness of different policies for disease prevention and discuss the influence of policy adjustment frequency for each country. Maintaining the tightest restriction or alternate tightening and loosening restrictions was recommended, with each having an average 72.45% and 79.78% reduction in maximum active cases, respectively. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/333576 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 3.4 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.617 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Hu, Hui | - |
dc.contributor.author | Xiong, Shuaizhou | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Xiaoling | - |
dc.contributor.author | Liu, Shuzhou | - |
dc.contributor.author | Gu, Lin | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zhu, Yuqi | - |
dc.contributor.author | Xiang, Dongjin | - |
dc.contributor.author | Skitmore, Martin | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-10-06T05:20:43Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-10-06T05:20:43Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Heliyon, 2023, v. 9, n. 3, article no. e14533 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2405-8440 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/333576 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The social contact rate has influenced the transmission of COVID-19, with more social contact resulting in more contagion cases. We chose 18 countries with the most confirmed cases in the first 200 days after the Wuhan lockdown. This was the first study using the dynamic social contact rate to simulate the epidemic under diverse restriction policies over 500 days since the COVID-19 outbreak. The developed General Dynamic Model suggested that the probability of contagion ranged from 12.52% to 39.39% in the epidemic. The geometric mean of the social contact rates differed from 18.21% to 96.00% between countries. The restriction policies in developed economies were 3.5 times more efficient than in developing economies. We compare the effectiveness of different policies for disease prevention and discuss the influence of policy adjustment frequency for each country. Maintaining the tightest restriction or alternate tightening and loosening restrictions was recommended, with each having an average 72.45% and 79.78% reduction in maximum active cases, respectively. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Heliyon | - |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | - |
dc.subject | Delayed-rejection adaptive metropolis method | - |
dc.subject | Dynamic social contact rate | - |
dc.subject | Epidemic control | - |
dc.subject | General dynamic model | - |
dc.subject | Restriction policy | - |
dc.title | The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate In memory of our beloved colleague Dr. Yuantong Shen, who passed away from COVID-19. Thanks for his kind efforts for this paper. | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14533 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85152043790 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 9 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 3 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | article no. e14533 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | article no. e14533 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000970486600001 | - |