File Download

There are no files associated with this item.

  Links for fulltext
     (May Require Subscription)
Supplementary

Article: Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China

TitleImpacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China
Authors
KeywordsAir quality
China
Climate change
Extreme event
Health
Issue Date2019
Citation
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019, v. 116, n. 35, p. 17193-17200 How to Cite?
AbstractIn recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/334609
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 9.4
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.737
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorHong, Chaopeng-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Qiang-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Yang-
dc.contributor.authorDavis, Steven J.-
dc.contributor.authorTong, Dan-
dc.contributor.authorZheng, Yixuan-
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Zhu-
dc.contributor.authorGuan, Dabo-
dc.contributor.authorHe, Kebin-
dc.contributor.authorSchellnhuber, Hans Joachim-
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-20T06:49:22Z-
dc.date.available2023-10-20T06:49:22Z-
dc.date.issued2019-
dc.identifier.citationProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019, v. 116, n. 35, p. 17193-17200-
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/334609-
dc.description.abstractIn recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America-
dc.subjectAir quality-
dc.subjectChina-
dc.subjectClimate change-
dc.subjectExtreme event-
dc.subjectHealth-
dc.titleImpacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.1812881116-
dc.identifier.pmid31405979-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85071713518-
dc.identifier.volume116-
dc.identifier.issue35-
dc.identifier.spage17193-
dc.identifier.epage17200-
dc.identifier.eissn1091-6490-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000483396800015-

Export via OAI-PMH Interface in XML Formats


OR


Export to Other Non-XML Formats