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Article: Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios

TitleFuture land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios
Authors
KeywordsCarbon pool
Cellular automata
Land-use projection
Scenarios
Sustainable development goals (SDGs)
System dynamics model
Issue Date8-Sep-2023
PublisherElsevier
Citation
Science Bulletin, 2023, v. 68, n. 7, p. 740-749 How to Cite?
Abstract

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the United Nations 2030 Agenda call for action by all nations to promote economic prosperity while protecting the planet. Projection of future land-use change under SDG scenarios is a new attempt to scientifically achieve the SDGs. Herein, we proposed four scenario assumptions based on the SDGs, including the sustainable economy (ECO), sustainable grain (GRA), sustainable environment (ENV), and reference (REF) scenarios. We forecasted land-use change along the Silk Road (resolution: 300 m) and compared the impacts of urban expansion and forest conversion on terrestrial carbon pools. There were significant differences in future land use change and carbon stocks, under the four SDG scenarios, by 2030. In the ENV scenario, the trend of decreasing forest land was mitigated, and forest carbon stocks in China increased by approximately 0.60% compared to 2020. In the GRA scenario, the decreasing rate of cultivated land area has slowed down. Cultivated land area in South and Southeast Asia only shows an increasing trend in the GRA scenario, while it shows a decreasing trend in other SDG scenarios. The ECO scenario showed highest carbon losses associated with increased urban expansion. The study enhances our understanding of how SDGs can contribute to mitigate future environmental degradation via accurate simulations that can be applied on a global scale.


Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/339419
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 18.8
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.807
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorCao, Min-
dc.contributor.authorTian, Y-
dc.contributor.authorWu, K-
dc.contributor.authorChen, Min-
dc.contributor.authorChen, Y-
dc.contributor.authorHu, X-
dc.contributor.authorSun, Z-
dc.contributor.authorZuo, L-
dc.contributor.authorLin, J-
dc.contributor.authorLei, L-
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Rui-
dc.contributor.authorXu, Zhenci-
dc.contributor.authorBandrova, T-
dc.contributor.authorKonecny, M-
dc.contributor.authorYuan, W-
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Huadong-
dc.contributor.authorLin, Hui-
dc.contributor.authorLü, Guonian -
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-11T10:36:28Z-
dc.date.available2024-03-11T10:36:28Z-
dc.date.issued2023-09-08-
dc.identifier.citationScience Bulletin, 2023, v. 68, n. 7, p. 740-749-
dc.identifier.issn2095-9273-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/339419-
dc.description.abstract<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/sustainable-development-goals" title="Learn more about Sustainable development goals from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">Sustainable development goals</a> (SDGs) in the United Nations 2030 Agenda call for action by all nations to promote economic prosperity while protecting the planet. Projection of future land-use change under SDG scenarios is a new attempt to scientifically achieve the SDGs. Herein, we proposed four scenario assumptions based on the SDGs, including the sustainable economy (ECO), sustainable grain (GRA), sustainable environment (ENV), and reference (REF) scenarios. We forecasted land-use change along the Silk Road (resolution: 300 m) and compared the impacts of urban expansion and forest conversion on terrestrial carbon pools. There were significant differences in future <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/land-use-change" title="Learn more about land use change from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">land use change</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/carbon-stock" title="Learn more about carbon stocks from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">carbon stocks</a>, under the four SDG scenarios, by 2030. In the ENV scenario, the trend of decreasing forest land was mitigated, and forest carbon stocks in China increased by approximately 0.60% compared to 2020. In the GRA scenario, the decreasing rate of cultivated land area has slowed down. Cultivated land area in South and Southeast Asia only shows an increasing trend in the GRA scenario, while it shows a decreasing trend in other SDG scenarios. The ECO scenario showed highest carbon losses associated with increased urban expansion. The study enhances our understanding of how SDGs can contribute to mitigate future environmental degradation via accurate simulations that can be applied on a global scale.<br></p>-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherElsevier-
dc.relation.ispartofScience Bulletin-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectCarbon pool-
dc.subjectCellular automata-
dc.subjectLand-use projection-
dc.subjectScenarios-
dc.subjectSustainable development goals (SDGs)-
dc.subjectSystem dynamics model-
dc.titleFuture land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85150276712-
dc.identifier.volume68-
dc.identifier.issue7-
dc.identifier.spage740-
dc.identifier.epage749-
dc.identifier.eissn2095-9281-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000985269800001-
dc.identifier.issnl2095-9273-

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