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Article: Estimation of the Time-Varying Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Based on Multivariate Time Series of Severe Health Outcomes
| Title | Estimation of the Time-Varying Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Based on Multivariate Time Series of Severe Health Outcomes |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Issue Date | 10-Oct-2023 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press |
| Citation | The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2023, v. 229, n. 2, p. 502-506 How to Cite? |
| Abstract | The time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt at time t) measures the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and is conventionally based on daily case counts, which may suffer from time-varying ascertainment. We analyzed Rt estimates from case counts and severe COVID-19 (intensive care unit admissions, severe or critical cases, and mortality) across 2022 in Hong Kong's fifth and sixth waves of infection. Within the fifth wave, the severe disease–based Rt (3.5) was significantly higher than the case-based Rt (2.4) but not in the sixth wave. During periods with fluctuating underreporting, data based on severe diseases may provide more reliable Rt estimates. |
| Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/339926 |
| ISSN | 2021 Impact Factor: 7.759 2020 SCImago Journal Rankings: 2.690 |
| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Young, Benjamin R | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Ho, Faith | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Lin, Yun | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Lau, Eric H Y | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Cowling, Benjamin J | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Wu, Peng | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Tsang, Tim K | - |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-03-11T10:40:22Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2024-03-11T10:40:22Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2023-10-10 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2023, v. 229, n. 2, p. 502-506 | - |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0022-1899 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/339926 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | <p>The time-varying effective reproduction number (<em>R<sub>t</sub></em> at time <em>t</em>) measures the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and is conventionally based on daily case counts, which may suffer from time-varying ascertainment. We analyzed <em>R<sub>t</sub></em> estimates from case counts and severe COVID-19 (intensive care unit admissions, severe or critical cases, and mortality) across 2022 in Hong Kong's fifth and sixth waves of infection. Within the fifth wave, the severe disease–based <em>R<sub>t</sub></em> (3.5) was significantly higher than the case-based <em>R<sub>t</sub></em> (2.4) but not in the sixth wave. During periods with fluctuating underreporting, data based on severe diseases may provide more reliable <em>R<sub>t</sub></em> estimates.<br></p> | - |
| dc.language | eng | - |
| dc.publisher | Oxford University Press | - |
| dc.relation.ispartof | The Journal of Infectious Diseases | - |
| dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | - |
| dc.title | Estimation of the Time-Varying Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Based on Multivariate Time Series of Severe Health Outcomes | - |
| dc.type | Article | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1093/infdis/jiad445 | - |
| dc.identifier.volume | 229 | - |
| dc.identifier.issue | 2 | - |
| dc.identifier.spage | 502 | - |
| dc.identifier.epage | 506 | - |
| dc.identifier.eissn | 1537-6613 | - |
| dc.identifier.issnl | 0022-1899 | - |