The impacts of sea level rise in the Greater Bay Area

Abstract

This paper proposes to extract the possible inundation area of the Greater Bay Area using the ArcGIS spatial analysis tool, based on the sea level rise (SLR) superimposed on the storm surge water level in the Pearl River Delta in 2030 and 2050 provided by He et al (2014). Combined with the data on population and economic statistics in 2020 and the data on future population and economic estimates under the common socio-economic path, it conducts a study on the population and economic exposure under the risk of SLR in 2030 and 2050, and predicts the population and GDP damages in the Greater Bay Area under the risk of SLR, so as to provide technological support for the response to coastal disaster in aspects of prevention and mitigation efforts. In conclusion, the area that could be submerged under the risk of SLR in the Greater Bay Area for different return periods increases with the year and return period, reaching at least 915 km2 in 2030 and 979 km2 in 2050. The inundation area of Jiangmen can reach 488 km2, 798 km2 and 1102 km2 for 10a, 50a and 100a return periods respectively. Among the six land use types, cropland is the most inundated on average with about 520 km2, accounting for about 33% of the total inundated area, followed by built-up land and vacant land, accounting for about 32% and 28% of the total inundated area, respectively. The total population and economy affected in 2030 and 2050 will increase with the change in the return period of the SLR value in the different paths. In 2030, the SSP1 path has the largest economic impact. The SSP5 path has the largest impact on the population. In 2050, the SSP5 path has the largest impact on both population and total GDP.