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Article: A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales.
| Title | A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Issue Date | 6-Oct-2010 |
| Publisher | Springer Nature |
| Citation | Population trends, 2010, v. 141, p. 95-114 How to Cite? |
| Abstract | We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is introduced, including autoregressive (AR) and stochastic volatility (SV) models. These models are then fitted to a historical time series of data from 1841 to 2007 and used to predict future population totals to 2033. These results are compared to the most recent projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. Sensitivity analyses are then performed to test the effect of changes in the prior uncertainty for a single parameter. Finally, in-sample forecasts are compared with actual population and previous official projections. The article ends with some conclusions and recommendations for future work. |
| Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/348763 |
| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Abel, G | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Bijak, J | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Raymer, J | - |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-10-15T00:30:40Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2024-10-15T00:30:40Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2010-10-06 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | Population trends, 2010, v. 141, p. 95-114 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/348763 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | <p>We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is introduced, including autoregressive (AR) and stochastic volatility (SV) models. These models are then fitted to a historical time series of data from 1841 to 2007 and used to predict future population totals to 2033. These results are compared to the most recent projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. Sensitivity analyses are then performed to test the effect of changes in the prior uncertainty for a single parameter. Finally, in-sample forecasts are compared with actual population and previous official projections. The article ends with some conclusions and recommendations for future work.<br></p> | - |
| dc.language | eng | - |
| dc.publisher | Springer Nature | - |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Population trends | - |
| dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | - |
| dc.title | A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. | - |
| dc.type | Article | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1057/pt.2010.23 | - |
| dc.identifier.volume | 141 | - |
| dc.identifier.spage | 95 | - |
| dc.identifier.epage | 114 | - |