The mediatory role of water quality on the association between extreme precipitation events and infectious diarrhea in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Abstract

Extreme precipitation is exacerbating the burden of infectious diarrhea in the context of climate change, it is necessary to identify the critical and easy-to-intervene intermediate factors for public health strategies. Water quality may be the most important mediator, while relevant empirical evidence is limited. This study aimed to examine the role of water quality in the process of infectious diarrhea caused by extreme precipitation. Weekly infectious diarrhea cases, meteorological factors and water quality data in Yangtze River Basin in China between October 29, 2007 to February 19, 2017 were obtained. Two-stage statistical models were used to estimate city-specific extreme precipitation, water quality and infectious diarrhea relationships that were pooled to derive regional estimates. A causal mediation analysis was used to assess the mediation effect of water quality. In Yangtze River Basin, extreme precipitation events had a significant impact on infectious diarrhea (Incidence Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.027, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.013∼1.041). After extreme precipitation events, the dissolved oxygen (DO) in surface water decreased (-0.123 mg/L, 95%CI: -0.159 mg/L∼-0.086 mg/L), while the un-ionized ammonia (NH(3)-N) increased (0.004 mg/L, 95%CI: 0.001 mg/L∼0.006 mg/L). The combined overall effect of DO and NH(3)-N on infectious diarrhea showed that both low and high concentrations were associated with an increased risk of infectious diarrhea. The causal mediation analysis showed that the mediation proportion of the two water quality indexes (DO and NH(3)-N) is 70.54% (P < 0.001). To reduce the health effects of extreme precipitation, in contrast to current population-oriented health strategies, those that take into account more direct and easy-to-intervene water quality indicators should be encouraged by future policies.