Revisiting partition priming in judgment under uncertainty : replication and extension registered report of Fox and Rottenstreich (2003)

Abstract

Partition dependence is the phenomenon in which individuals' evaluations of probabilities are influenced by the partitioning of the information, based on how the information is presented or framed. In a Registered Report experiment involving an American online Prolific sample (N = 603), we conducted a replication and extension of Studies 1a, 1b, 3, and 4 from a classic article by Fox and Rottenstreich (2003) demonstrating the phenomenon. They showed that participants’ estimations of an event’s likelihood shifted based on minor adjustments of the framing that suggested a change in partitioning perspective (“ignorance prior” priming). Based on a pre-registered replication evaluation criterion, we concluded a mostly successful replication of Fox and Rottenstreich (2003)’s findings. Specifically, we found support for partition dependence in scenarios from Study 1a items 1 and 2, Study 1b, and Study 3, with weaker effects, yet with no consistent support for Study 1a item 3 and Study 4. Our extensions further explored the robustness of partition dependence by examining participants’ probability evaluations of complementary events (happen vs. not happen) and the impact of task order on judgment and decision-making. Overall, the findings suggest support for partition dependence yet as more nuanced and context-dependent than expected, and the need for further research to understand its mechanisms, robustness, and implications across different contexts.