Validity of nomograms for predicting cancer risk in oral leukoplakia and oral lichen planus

Abstract

Objectives: This study assessed the validity of nomograms for predicting malignant transformation (MT) among patients with oral leukoplakia (OL) and oral lichen planus (OLP). Materials and Methods: Two nomograms were identified following a systematic search. Variables to interrogate both nomograms were obtained for a retrospective OL/OLP cohort. Then, the nomograms were applied to estimate MT probabilities twice and their average was used to calculate the discriminatory performance, calibration, and potential net benefit of the models. Subgroup analyses were performed for patients with OL, OLP, and oral epithelial dysplasia. Results: Predicted probabilities were mostly significantly higher among OL/OLP patients who developed MT compared to those who did not (p = <0.001–0.034). AUC values and Brier scores of the nomograms were 0.644–0.844 and 0.040–0.088 among OL patients and 0.580–0.743 and 0.008–0.072 among OLP patients. Decision curve analysis suggested that the nomograms had some net benefit for risk stratification. However, the models did not best binary dysplasia grading in discriminatory validity and net benefit among patients with OL and oral epithelial dysplasia. Conclusion: Nomograms for predicting MT may have satisfactory validity among patients with OL than OLP, but they do not outperform binary dysplasia grading in risk stratification of OL.