Unleashing hidden carbon sequestration potential: A case study of the Greater Bay Area, China

Abstract

Improving carbon sequestration through optimal land management is a vital nature-based strategy due to low cost and easy popularization. However, the potential carbon sequestration gains (PCSG) resulting from land management are not well understood. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the PCGS in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China. The actual and potential net primary production (PNPP) based on remote sensing and the Miami model from 2001 to 2020 was used to estimate carbon sequestration. The study utilized the landscape character unit to separate the environmental factors and land management differences, and focal statistics to estimate PCSG by comparing local PNPP with target NPP under optimal land management. The correlations between PCSG and accumulated area, carbon sequestration, and population density were analyzed. The results found that the PCSG flux is higher in suburban areas compared to urban and peripheral ecological areas, as well as higher in human landscapes than in natural landscapes. The PCSG was estimated to increase carbon sequestration by 35%. Optimal land management should be prioritized in 26.76% of the area to achieve half of the PCSG goal. This study revealed the importance of land management on carbon sequestration towards climate adaptation and carbon neutrality.