Impact of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global crude oil shipping carbon emissions

Abstract

Global shipping is a major contributor to carbon emissions and climate change, a dynamic influenced by geopolitical crises. This study examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on carbon emissions from global crude oil shipping by analyzing 5.6 billion AIS shipping route records (January 2021–December 2023). The key findings are as follows: (1) One year into the conflict, emissions dropped 5.8 %, transport distances increased by 2.7 %, and shipping volume declined by 9.7 %. (2) Regional disparities emerged: emissions fell in the North Atlantic, Mediterranean, China, and Russia, but rose in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. (3) Early conflict periods saw volatile emissions, which later stabilized with the establishment of new routes. Regression analysis supports these findings, underscoring the environmental impact of geopolitical conflicts and offering insights for sustainable shipping strategies.