Temperature, Crime, and Violence: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Heat is known to affect many health outcomes, but more evidence is needed on the impact of rising temperatures on crime and/or violence. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis regarding the influence of hot temperatures on crime and/or violence. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we evaluated the relationship between increase in temperature and crime and/or violence for studies across the world and generated overall estimates. We searched MEDLINE and Web of Science for articles from the available database start year (1946 and 1891, respectively) to 6 November 2023 and manually reviewed reference lists of identified articles. Two investigators independently reviewed the abstracts and full-text articles to identify and summarize studies that analyzed the relationship between increasing temperature and crime, violence, or both and met a priori eligibility criteria. PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guide-lines were used to extract information from included articles. Some study results were combined using a profile likelihood random-effects model for meta-analysis for a subset of outcomes: violent crime (assault, homicide), property crime (theft, burglary), and sexual crime (sexual assault, rape). This review is registered at PROSPERO, CRD42023417295. RESULTS: We screened 16,634 studies with 83 meeting the inclusion criteria. Higher temperatures were significantly associated with crime, violence, or both. A 10°C (18°F) increase in short-term mean temperature exposure was associated with a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7%, 12%] increase in the risk of violent crime (I² = 30:93%; eight studies). Studies had differing definitions of crime and/or violence, exposure assessment methods, and confounder assessments. DISCUSSION: Our findings summarize the evidence supporting the association between elevated temperatures, crime, and violence, particularly for violent crimes. Associations for some categories of crime and/or violence, such as property crimes, were inconsistent. Future research should employ larger spatial/temporal scales, consistent crime and violence definitions, advanced modeling strategies, and different populations and locations.