Local energy zone for urban carbon emissions studies – Accounting, characterization and prediction

Abstract

<p>Cities play a pivotal role in achieving the global common goals for carbon peak and neutrality, encompassing energy conservation, emission reduction, sustainable utilization of urban ecosystems, and urban spatial configuration. As interest in urban contributions to climate change adaptation and mitigation intensifies, the accounting, spatial characterization, and prediction of urban carbon emissions are gaining increased attention. However, three critical challenges hinder progress: (1) the scarcity of long-term reliable data, (2) uncertainties and inconsistencies arising from fragmented carbon accounting, characterization, and prediction paradigms, and (3) the decoupling effects of socio-economic factors on carbon emissions. To address these issues, we propose an integrated research paradigm that simultaneously combines carbon emission accounting, spatial characterization, and prediction. This study comprehensively assesses the relationship between land use categories and corresponding sectoral carbon emissions across China's prefecture-level cities. An evidence-based landscape zoning system—Local Energy Zone (LEZ) is proposed, identifying significant inter-class (Mean coefficient of variation = 152 %) and intra-class (Maximum coefficient of variation = 412 %) variations in carbon source LEZ categories. Comparative analyses with multiple models and products validated LEZ's superiority in carbon emission accounting (R² = 0.811). The pilot test conducted in Guangzhou (China) revealed that LEZ offers dual analytical benefits over other emission inventory and research paradigms by enabling comprehensive macro-level emission quantification while simultaneously facilitating precise micro-scale spatial characterization of emission patterns. This novel zoning scheme addresses the limitations of traditional carbon emission studies and offers new tools and perspectives for global urban carbon footprint and sustainable development research.</p>