Location planning, resource reallocation and patient assignment during a pandemic considering the needs of ordinary patients

Abstract

<p>During the initial phase of a pandemic outbreak, the rapid increase in the number of infected patients leads to shortages of medical resources for both pandemic-related and non-pandemic (ordinary) patients. It is crucial to efficiently utilize limited existing resources and strike a balance between controlling the pandemic and sustaining regular healthcare system operations. To tackle this challenge, we introduce and investigate the problem of optimizing the location of designated hospitals, reallocating beds within these hospitals, and assigning different types of patients to these hospitals. Designated hospitals isolate pandemic-related patients from ordinary patients to prevent cross-infection. Moreover, isolation beds can be converted into ordinary beds and vice versa. Considering the stochasticity and evolving nature of the pandemic, we formulate this problem as a multi-stage stochastic programming model, integrating a compartmental model with time-varying random parameters to enable dynamic resource allocation as the pandemic progresses. The model is then solved by a data-driven rolling horizon solution approach. We illustrate the effectiveness of our model using real data from the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared with two other approaches, our model demonstrates superior performance in controlling the spread of the pandemic while addressing the needs of both pandemic-related and ordinary patients. We also conduct a series of experiments to uncover managerial insights for policymakers to better utilize existing resources in response to pandemic outbreaks. Results indicate that admitting as many pandemic-related patients as possible during the initial phases of the outbreak can effectively flatten the pandemic peaks and alleviate strain on the healthcare system.<br></p>