The impacts of sea level rise in Guangdong province

Abstract

This paper studies the sea level rise caused by climate warming and its influence, and uses the thermal expansion principle of seawater and the mass balance principle of ice cover to obtain a prediction model of sea level rise, and uses the observation data of tide stations and satellite altimeters, as well as the results of 10 Earth system models with good simulation performance based on screened CMIP6. The long-term trend and future rise of sea level in Guangdong Province are analyzed and predicted. The results show that: (1) From 1960 to 2021, the sea level along the coast of Guangdong presents an accelerated rising trend, with a rising rate of 2.8 mm/yr; From 1980 to 2021, the rising rate is 3.6 mm/yr. The rate of increase from 1993 to 2021 is 3.7mm/yr, higher than the global appreciation of 3.3mm /a in the same period; (3) Compared with the mean sea level height during 1995-2014, the sea level rise along the Guangdong coast is predicted to be 0.1mm in 2030, 0.16mm in 2050, and 0.3mm in 2100. Based on the estimated sea level rise of Guangdong coast, the effects of shoreline retreat and coastal area loss caused by sea level rise in 2030, 2050 and 2100 are studied, and the effects of sea level rise on mangrove, seagrass and wetland ecosystems in coastal waters of Guangdong are further analyzed. Through literature review, the effects of sea level rise on river and sea embankment, storm surge disaster, flood drainage, salt water intrusion and tidal flat resources are explored. According to the predicted relative sea level rise of 6 coastal sections in Guangdong in 2030, it is suggested to improve the design level of coastal projects. Numerical simulation based on high tide rise. It is suggested to raise the design climax level of the project. On the basis of calculating the recurrence period of storm surge with different frequency, the fortification standard of each bank segment is put forward. On the basis of calculating the increase of wave height, the increase of the design crossing height of each shore section is proposed.